How I Would #BeatDetroit

I hope the Valpo coaching staff isn't too upset with me waiting until the day before to post how I would #BeatDetroit.  I mean, my report on how I would beat Murray State seemed to work out ok, I can only assume they took my game plan and implemented it to perfection.  Well, maybe not.  Anyway, for your reading pleasure here is how I would go about beating Detroit.

To figure out how to #BeatDetroit I first went back and looked at each of their losses.  Detroit has not won a game without scoring 74 points or more.  Next, I looked at some of their statistics as a team and the individual players (see the PPS post right before this one). I have three options to choose from, and none of them are the Cleveland State pray that they hit only 13/32 foul shots method.

Option 1: Slow it down
One way to win this game is to slow the tempo down.  It is no secret that Detroit likes to get up and down the court.  I suspect they will try to full court trap Valpo and attempt to force turnovers that way.  I really think that will play into Valpo's favor.  Valpo is very turnover prone, but I can't think of one instance where they turned the ball over due to a full court trap.  Assuming the Crusaders get the ball up the court without much a problem it is then just a matter of running their normal offensive sets.  Less then 15 turnovers and I think Valpo wins this game. 

Option 2: Push the pace
Option 1 seems like the safer play, but the more exciting play is to push the pace.  Attempt to wear out the Titans and their 6 man rotation.  If Valpo can get out and run and be under control doing it they might be able to use the deep Crusader bench to their advantage.  I don't think this is the best option mainly because both teams will be well rested having not played since last weekend, but also because a few bad bounces and you are playing Detroit's style.

Option 3: Sag the zone
For the third option I pose that Valpo play mainly a zone defense.  I would sag the zone and have every guy keep at least one foot inside the three point arc.  I'd dare the Titans to shoot the 3 pointers (except for Calliste).  The sagging zone would prevent their guys from penetrating and should keep their good free throw shooters off the line.  Also, whenever Doug Anderson is heading the to the rim; I'd give him a good clean hard foul to make sure he is shooting 2 free throws.

Which option do you like best?  Maybe you have your own ideas?  Please share in the comments section.  Also, don't forget to leave your predictions in the comments section of the predict the final score post and the predict Ryan's stat line post.

#BeatDetroit

PPS Preview for #BeatDetroit

Looking ahead to Thursday we would be hard pressed to find two teams who's style of play was less alike.  Valpo can play the half court game, work the ball inside, draw fouls, hit the perimeter jumper when its there.  Detroit on the other hand is a fast paced, get the ball and run team.  They like to run and gun and play the high scoring game.  Let's first take a look at each teams' PPS along with their opponents:

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	3625	0.82	0.33	0.49
Opponents	Valpo	3625	0.70	0.35	0.35
		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Detroit	DET	3400	0.91	0.35	0.56
Opponents	DET	3400	0.82	0.35	0.47

Valpo has a very low team PPS while Detroit is sporting a good mid major level team score.  Valpo's biggest detractor is obviously their very high turnover number.  Valpo has turned it over 281 times (with only 231 assits) while Detroit has only given it up 196 times (against 249 assists).  But, where Valpo trails Detroit in team PPS they have a sizable lead when it comes to limiting their opponents.  Valpo has allowed opponents to shoot less then 40% from the field, they out rebound the competition, and are very good at drawing fouls.  Detroit has allowed teams to shoot it at a 46% clip (including nearly 40% from 3pt range...Ryan, Lavontae, Ben, and Will are licking their chops) and they get outrebounded.

I don't have the energy to write up a couple game plans tonight to #BeatDetroit, we'll save that for tomorrow, but what I did have energy for was figuring out their key players (guys who average over 10 minutes per game) PPS.  I had the energy because there was only 6 of them (Valpo has 9, this will come into play in tomorrow's game plan).

Detroit	DET	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ray McCallum	DET	597	1.19	0.37	0.82
Jason Calliste	DET	567	0.88	0.36	0.52
Nick Minnerath	DET	447	1.00	0.39	0.61
Doug Anderson	DET	445	0.96	0.37	0.59
Juwan Howard	DET	483	0.76	0.28	0.48
Evan Bruinsma	DET	338	0.75	0.29	0.46
PJ Boutte	DET	183	0.64	0.39	0.25

 
 These guys are all pretty solid.  They don't give up the ball much and they wreak havoc on the other teams guards forcing a multitude of turnovers.  The one guy who does give it up from time to time is Calliste and the one guy who doesn't make free throws is Anderson.  I'll go more into these details in tomorrow's post.  The numbers up top don't lie.  I don't see a blow out in either team's favor regardless of which team is able to dictate the tempo.

Don't forget to predict the final score and Ryan Broekhoff's combined first half points + rebounds in the comments section of the previous two posts.  Also follow @sectionee.  Lots of free haircuts from Cuts and Shaves being thrown out during this game Thursday! #BeatDetroit

#BeatDetroit Contest 2

We are excited to open up the second contest for the #BeatDetroit game Thursday night.  For this contest, predict the total points + rebounds that Ryan Broekhoff will have in the first half of the game (example: if he gets 8 points and grabs 5 rebounds then his total you would have wanted to predict is 13).

Post your predictions in the comments section of this thread and leave a way for me to contact you if you are the winner. Get it exactly right and I wil throw in a poster of The Shot to accompany the free haircut!

#BeatDetroit Contest 1 - Predict the final

Here is your first chance to win one of the Cuts and Shaves haircuts.  In the comments section of this post predict the final score between Valpo and Detroit.  Closest person to the correct score will be the winner.  Should someone guess the final score exactly right, I will throw in a bonus prize of either a Bryce Drew rookie card or a South Shore poster of "The Shot".

Remember, to win you must post the prediction here in the comments section.  It would also be a good idea to leave someway of contacting you just in case.  We will take predictions between now and 5:59pm Central time on Thursday.

Other ways to win:

* Follow @SectionEE on twitter

* on Wednesday there will be a new post to predict Ryan Broekhoff's total points + rebounds in the first half

Good luck and Go Valpo