Game Plan: Green Bay

For Valpo's next opponent, the Crusaders will welcome in the Phoenix of Green Bay Wednesday night to the ARC.  Valpo has been on a roll recently with victories in their last 5 games and sit at 5-1 a top the Horizon League standings. Meanwhile, Green Bay is right in the mix sitting at 4-2.  They are unbeaten at home and have not found a W while on the road in conference play.

Green Bay features some tall bodies in Alec Brown, Brennan Cougill, and Jordan Fouse.  Fouse has been outstanding recently for the Phoenix.  His length on defense at the top of their 1-2-2 zone has cause some real problems.  Brown has been solid averaging 12 a game in conference, but his fg% is down near 40%.  Cougill (whom reminds me of the marshmallow man) has comeback from his off the court issues to average nearly 10 points a game off the bench.

Green Bay also has some outside shooting in the form of Keifer Sykes, Sultan Muhammed, and Cam Cerroni.  Sykes can be an explosive player, a future all HL member in my opinion, and Valpo would be wise to keep track of where he is at on the court.  Green Bay rebounds well, plays good defense (allowing only 58 points per game in conference play), and they have several shot blockers.  Here are their PPS for conference play only.

Conference Only
Green Bay	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Sykes	GB	211	0.87	0.36	0.51
Brown	GB	186	0.98	0.38	0.60
Cougill	GB	112	1.17	0.38	0.79
Mays	GB	92	0.96	0.37	0.59
Fouse	GB	159	1.02	0.35	0.67
Muhammad	GB	138	0.64	0.25	0.39
Cerroni	GB	129	0.46	0.16	0.30
Love	GB	81	0.52	0.33	0.19
Turner	GB	48	0.35	0.42	-0.07
Stefan	GB	42	0.33	0.36	-0.03
Team	GB	1200	0.82	0.33	0.49

Here is how I'd attack Green Bay.  First, I'd let Brown and Cougill shoot 3's all day if they want to.  Force those two outside for their shots.  I really think the key to beating GB is to attack the paint and attempt to get their big guys into foul trouble.  I think Valpo can get Brown and Fouse in foul trouble by creating contact with guys like KVW, Ryan, Matt, and even Erik.  Those guys like blocking shots, but fouling is a big risk that comes with the shot blocking.  I really expect to see a lot of Erik breaking down their zone off the dribble and creating a lot of open looks for his perimeter shooting teammates.  Buggs making good decisions when he gets into the lane will be key.  I expect Bogan to continue his hot shooting from the corners and KVW to have another outstanding game.

Conference Only
Valparaiso	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	200	1.25	0.27	0.98
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	151	1.30	0.34	0.96
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	128	0.89	0.41	0.48
Matt Kenney	Valpo	163	0.85	0.28	0.57
Ben Boggs	Valpo	50	0.48	0.26	0.22
Bobby Capobianco	Valpo	73	0.74	0.52	0.22
Erik Buggs	Valpo	164	0.65	0.34	0.31
Will Bogan	Valpo	161	0.42	0.23	0.19
Jordan Coleman	Valpo	92	0.57	0.40	0.17
Vashil Fernandez	Valpo	18	0.67	0.33	0.34
Team	Valpo	1200	0.93	0.33	0.60

Valpo has the higher team PPS and higher individual scores.  I suspect Valpo will win this game rather easily.  I'll throw a final score of 68-59 out there. 

Valpo PPS Through 1/21/13

Stats are current as of 1/21/2013.  The first set of PPS is the overall season.  The second set of PPS is conference games only.  Some guys have really seen their time decrease since conference play has begun: Capobianco has lost 2 minutes/game, Boggs has gone down (due to injury) 9 minutes/game, Dority has dropped nearly 3 minutes/game, Coleman has lost 2 minutes/game.  Others have seen an increase in play time: Broekhoff up 1 minute/game, KVW up 2 minutes/game, Kenney up 3 minutes/game, and Bogan up 2 minutes/game.


Valpo's team score has improved dramatically since the start of Horizon League play.  The biggest reason for this is the assist/turnover ratio.  Overall Valpo has 269 assist vs. 303 turnovers, however, since the the start of league play Valpo has managed 90 assists to only 79 turnovers. 

Overall
Player	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	614	1.19	0.28	0.91
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	466	1.28	0.40	0.88
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	265	0.98	0.45	0.53
Matt Kenney	Valpo	479	0.75	0.31	0.44
Ben Boggs	Valpo	375	0.62	0.27	0.35
Bobby Capobianco	Valpo	253	0.90	0.43	0.47
Erik Buggs	Valpo	542	0.60	0.32	0.28
Will Bogan	Valpo	485	0.41	0.23	0.18
Jordan Coleman	Valpo	351	0.71	0.36	0.35
Vashil Fernandez	Valpo	149	0.51	0.33	0.18
Valparaiso	Valpo	4025	0.83	0.32	0.51

For the season Ryan and Kevin are playing at all conference levels, their numbers are actually better then last year.  Ryan is looking more and more like an NBA prospect.  Both guys have stepped up their game another notch with the start of conference play.  This is really impressive by both players and by the coaching staff.  Opponents are keying in on these guys and it is not making any difference (yet).  Wright State put their focus on Broekhoff the other night and did a great job on him for the first 37 minutes.  The last 3 minutes saw Ryan go for 12 points, 3 rebounds, and an assist to finish with yet another double double (18/10).  While KVW was busy completing his HL Player of the Week with an 18 point performance of his own.

Conference Only
Valparaiso	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	200	1.25	0.27	0.98
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	151	1.30	0.34	0.96
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	128	0.89	0.41	0.48
Matt Kenney	Valpo	163	0.85	0.28	0.57
Ben Boggs	Valpo	50	0.48	0.26	0.22
Bobby Capobianco	Valpo	73	0.74	0.52	0.22
Erik Buggs	Valpo	164	0.65	0.34	0.31
Will Bogan	Valpo	161	0.42	0.23	0.19
Jordan Coleman	Valpo	92	0.57	0.40	0.17
Vashil Fernandez	Valpo	18	0.67	0.33	0.34
Team	Valpo	1200	0.93	0.33	0.60

There are some very encouraging trends starting for Crusader fans:
* Will Bogan is starting to find his touch.  I tweeted Will the morning before the WSU game and told him I had him hitting 4 3 pointers all from the corners (he responded saying that'd be fine with him as long as they won)...he hit three all from the corners.  His shooting is coming back around.
* Matt Kenney has really responded to the increase in playing time in a positive way.  His turnovers are low and his production as been exactly what Valpo has needed for his role.
* Erik Buggs and WIll Bogan have done a great job defending opposing back courts.  McCallum and Calliste did not look at all like all conference players the other night.  In a league with many teams being driven by strong guard play these two have done great on the defensive end.
* Valpo is averaging nearly 3 points more per game since the start of conference play (I won't mention that they are giving up nearly 4 more points per game)

Valpo/Detroit PPS

Valpo pulled off what will perhaps be the comeback of the year in college basketball yesterday.  After trailing by as much as 22 points in the second half and by 11 with under 3 minutes to play, the Crusaders found a way to win 89-88 at Detroit Mercy.  This match up featured the two leading candidates for the league POY and saw some of the highest PPS I've seen in a Valpo game to date.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	200	1.03	0.35	0.68
Detroit	DET	200	0.95	0.34	0.61

Detroit dominated the first half, while Valpo was able to make the needed adjustments and maintain composure en route to a 57 point outburst in the second half.  Valpo used the hot shooting of KVW and Matt Kenney, won the rebounding battle, and finally had more assists then turnovers.  Detroit shot themselves in the foot with two silly technical fouls leading to 4 easy points for Ryan Broekhoff.  Outstanding performances from this game to the Crusaders VanWijk and Broekhoff, while Nick Minnerath put up a huge PPS for the Titans.

Player	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	35	1.40	0.29	1.11
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	20	1.00	0.60	0.40
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	30	1.87	0.20	1.67
Erik Buggs	Valpo	28	0.93	0.57	0.36
Matt Kenney	Valpo	30	0.18	0.25	-0.07
Will Bogan	Valpo	28	0.83	0.13	0.70

Detroit	DET	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ray McCallum	DET	35	0.80	0.60	0.20
Jason Calliste	DET	38	0.66	0.21	0.45
Nick Minnerath	DET	33	1.94	0.24	1.70
Doug Anderson	DET	31	1.06	0.26	0.80
Juwan Howard	DET	35	0.49	0.34	0.15

A few things worth noting.  Will Bogan's cold shooting continued for Valpo but he did a nice job chasing Jason Calliste around all night and limiting his effectiveness.  Also worthy of mention was the POY candidate Ray McCallum was completely taken out of this game by the defensive effort of Erik Buggs.  Buggs is notorious in these parts for low PPS, seeing him finish with a higher score then Jr will be a real treat for all Crusader fans. 

The Broekhoff/McCallum race for POY was a little one sided this night and Rowdy should be separating himself from the field of POY contenders with his season long run of solid play.

Valpo Stuns Detriot, 3-0 on the road

The last time I graced this page I was frustrated and upset by a senior laden team that was playing more like freshman.  The coach got the brunt of my criticism, but tonight Coach Drew showed me that he's got game and that he's learning.

Let's get the bad out of the way first.  15 turnovers is still too much for this team and is something they must remedy.  Capobianco was ejected in the 2nd half for a flagrant 2 foul.  I understood the call because the game was getting chippy, but it did not there was malice intended because it appeared he was going for the ball, but caught the forearm instead.

Now the good.  KVW hopefully came out of what seems like a season long funk and is my MVP on the night with 31 pts because he single-handedly kept the Crusaders in the game.  Matt Kenney also had a great night going 4-5 from behind the arc where he earned all 12 of his points.  Broekhoff filled the stat sheet as usual with 18 points, 9 rbs, 5 ast, 3 stls, and 2 blocks.  Broekhoff and KVW together combined for 49 of the 89 points for Valpo and highlights for me what is the key to this team.  Last year when both guys were in the game for at least 30 minutes the team was extremely successful.  Earlier in this year when coach was trying to play a 10 man rotation the minutes were down for both men and I believe it didn't let them get into a groove.  Conference play has seen what appears to be a shrinking bench and increasing role for the starters as it should be from here on out. 

For the Titans Minnerath had an out of his mind night.  He was beyond being on fire.  He was 12-17 with 36 points for Detroit while McCallum had 6 pts and 8 asts.  Jr seemed to shrink down the stretch the more the Crusaders got themselves back in the game.  He's a dangerous player for sure, but tonight he played second fiddle and that is never a winning combination for them. 

Crusaders are now alone in 2nd place in league play at 4-1 while the Titans slip to 3rd at 3-2.  Meanwhile, Wright State remains the early surprise atop the standings at 4-0 and they have a date at the ARC this Saturday night!

What are your thoughts on the game tonight? We'd love to hear them!