The CIT is definately an odd tournament, well, maybe not odd maybe I just don't understand it. While I haven't seen any official rankings for this teams involved in this tournament, the round 1 matchup of Iona and Valparaiso could be seen as the #1 team visiting the #3 team. Taking the average of the RPI, KenPom, and Saragin for each team would have them ranked as follows. I think next year, instead of scheduling teams like PNC and IUN at the beginning of the year, Valpo should consider scheduling North Dakota and Tennessee Tech (to help strengthen their schedule and RPI) but that is another topic for another day.
Rank Team (Record) RPI KenPom Saragin Average
1 Iona (22-11) 68 60 79 69
2 Marshall (22-11) 54 80 78 70.67
3 Valparaiso (23-11) 70 105 90 88.33
4 Portland (20-11) 101 103 98 100.67
5 Rider (23-10) 105 107 100 104
6 East Tennessee State (22-11) 91 112 112 105
7 Air Force (15-15) 110 113 109 110.67
8 East Carolina (18-15) 96 136 121 117.67
9 Northern Iowa (19-13) 112 129 119 120
10 Oral Roberts (19-15) 129 132 137 132.67
11 Furman (22-10) 116 154 130 133.33
12 San Francisco (17-14) 120 145 140 135
13 Idaho (18-13) 136 135 145 138.67
14 Buffalo (18-13) 165 119 136 140
15 Northern Arizona (19-12) 151 127 143 140.33
16 Santa Clara (19-14) 158 149 148 151.67
17 Quinnipiac (22-9) 144 166 158 156
18 Hawaii (18-12) 160 155 157 157.33
19 Jacksonville (19-11) 142 176 154 157.33
20 Ohio (18-15) 163 157 161 160.33
21 Western Michigan (20-12) 173 165 167 168.33
22 SMU (17-14) 206 146 178 176.67
23 Tennessee Tech (20-12) 190 204 209 201
24 North Dakota (19-14) 271 305 301 292.33
Anyways, onto the game at hand:
Having this game at the ARC (with a very supporting student section, right) is a huge benefit to the Crusaders. Iona was 11-2 on their home court and only 11-9 away from home. Valpo was 13-3 at home and 10-8 away from the ARC. Paying for this home game should prove to be a good move. As previously posted, Valpo and Coach Drew will have to draw up a scheme to stop a big man inside with Gael forward Mike Glover (18 ppg, 10 rpg). The Crusaders have had success this year in slowing down big men with their intense double teams usually coming in the form of Cory Johnson/Kevin Van Wijk double teaming with Ryan Broekhoff/Michael Rogers. These double teams have been successful in the past against the likes of JuJuan Johnson of Purdue (6 turnovers), Nick Minnerath of Detroit (4 pts in 32 minutes), and Kyle Weems of Missouri State (7-21 shooting) to name just a few.
Both teams should be very well rested. The Crusaders haven't seen game action since March 5 when they lost in the Horizon League semi-finals to top seeded Milwaukee, while the Gaels haven't played since March 7 when they fell to St. Peter's in their MAAC finale. The rest should really benefit the Crusaders who had been played 10 games in 23 days.
For Valpo, Brandon Wood (pictured with Cory Johnson) was red hot at the end of the year, leading the team in scoring the last three games with 20, 30, and 24 points. For Valpo to win this game, they will need someone to step up and help him in the offense. Broekhoff needs to find his outside shooting touch when seems to have gone missing ever since his 5-6 effort from the arc in a game at Green Bay. That span of five games has seen Broekhoff go 3-18 from downtown. Cory Johnson is the other big scoring threat that could step up for VU. Johnson has had some monster games this season, while a monster offensive effort shouldn't be required to advance, a 15 point 6 rebound game would be helpful. Lately, it's been Johnson's lack of being able to play defense without fouling that has hurt him and his team lately. Two of the Crusader's three guys mentioned above need to have solid games Wednesday night to defeat Iona.
The play of the benches could be a key as well. The Iona Gaels have 6 guys that average over 20 minutes a game. Noone else averages more then 10. The Crusaders will have to take note when Sean Armand enters the game. He only averages 9 minutes a game, but he shoots it 40% from the arc and must shoot it a lot when he is in the game (45-113 shooting from range). Valpo has 9 guys that average over 13 minutes a game. Six of those guys average over 23 minutes a game. That depth allows the Crusaders to keep guys fresh during the game while keeping quality players on the court at all times.
Prediction: Valpo takes their first ever postseason tournament home game 81-70.
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