This is as unbiased as it gets here. I've used my PPS formula on the major players for both teams in this Thursday's game and also calculated both teams' PPS (Player Productivity Score) for the whole season. Here are the results.
Valparaiso Cleveland State
VanWijk 0.85370 Grady 0.73134
Broekhoff 0.83146 Brown 0.59184
Edwards 0.60597 Kamczyc 0.50212
Harris 0.51000 Harmon 0.46647
Kenney 0.44134 Montgomery 0.42922
Bogan 0.30781 Pogue 0.40123
Boggs 0.23373 Lee 0.22955
Buggs 0.23214
Valpo Team 0.51562 Cleveland State Team 0.46458
Here is what I see based on the statistics. Valpo is the more efficient team as a whole. VU plays more guys on a regular basis. However, three of Valpo's starters are scoring out at less then 0.31. Based on these numbers Valpo should win a close one, however, I wonder what effect the fact of the low scores for Valpo starters will play.
Obviously the major key to a Valpo Victory will be how they handle the full court pressure from the Vikings. If Valpo can keep their turnovers at or under 15 hereby limiting the number of extra shot attempts for CSU they should have a real chance of pulling this one off.
Prediction: I think the fact that Brown is injured and will probably be limited at best is greatly beneficial for Valpo. If Valpo keeps those turnovers under 15 and gets the averages from KVW and Rowdy they win. I can't pick against Valpo in the biggest game of the year. Valpo wins a dousy 76-74.
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Looks like a front court duo against a back court duo. I don't know how the HL refs are but visiting big men usually get the shaft on the road in the B10. Should be very, very interesting. Definitely better than most of the bracket buster match-ups.
ReplyDeleteI agree that this is gonna be a real tough game, but I think the Crusaders will edge them out. Bogan actually seems to shoot better on the road, so lets hope he is hot when/if CSU clamps down on Rowdy and KVW
ReplyDeleteGrady is a stud who should be on the All Conference team if CSU takes one of the top two seeds.
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