Valpo vs. Loyola and CSU

If you'd like an updated look at how the entire roster is performing based on our PPS formula head here, http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Heading back to work after a long break isn’t easy for anyone, especially for middle school math teachers and mid major college basketball players. After a long layoff Valpo came out and was out played and out coached from opening tip to the ending buzzer in their horizon League opener at home against Loyola. It was hard to watch and even harder to motivate myself to calculate the PPS scores. Here they are with a brief breakdown to follow:

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Loyola	LOY	200	0.81	0.29	0.52
Valparaiso	Valpo	200	0.69	0.34	0.35

Valpo’s – score really wasn’t that bad.  However, they didn’t take advantage of their possessions and Loyola did not make many mistakes when it was their turn with the ball.  Luckily it was a short one day off and Valpo got back to their winning ways with a blowout of Horizon League foe Cleveland State.  Valpo was able to turn the tables from their previous game.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
CSU	CSU	200	0.64	0.37	0.27
Valparaiso	Valpo	200	0.90	0.38	0.52

As you can see Valpo’s – score was actually worse this game when compared to the debacle that was the Loyola game.  The Crusaders had more turnovers and more missed free throws vs. CSU.  Unlike the Loyola game Valpo was able to force the Vikings into a lower + score by out rebounding them by 16, forcing them to shoot only 30%, and allowing only 6 assists.  Meanwhile, the Crusaders put up a nice + score due again to their rebounding numbers.

Valpo will now head on a 3 game road trip squaring off against surprising UIC, a down Milwaukee team, and arch rival Detroit.

Valpo Host Loyola & a contest

The end of the non conference portion of the schedule has come and gone with Valpo's victory at Murray State.  To start the
importantconference portion of the schedule Valpo will play host to Loyola.  The Ramblers have really played well early on and pose a real threat.  Valpo isn't the only team in this game coming off a big win, Loyola knocked off DePaul in their last game.  Here is a look at the PPS for what is sure to be a hotly contested conference opener at the ARC.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	2625	0.82	0.34	0.48
Opponents	Valpo	2625	0.70	0.36	0.34
Loyola	LOY	2400	0.77	0.31	0.46
Opponents	LOY	2400	0.70	0.34	0.36

Valpo has the slightly higher team PPS and have surrender a slightly lower PPS to their opponents when compared to Loyola.  Both teams have been turnover plagued and both teams have decent depth on their bench.  I will give the edge to Valpo, their higher PPS plus their star power plus the home court advantage will carry Valpo to the win. I think this game will be closely contested until about the last 10 minutes of the second half.  Thats when Valpo will have Averkamp and Crisman in foul trouble and Rowdy and Company will finish the Ramblers off.  I'll say final score: Valpo 73 Loyola 66.

Contest time! Predict the final score by posting it our comments section along with an email so I can contact you if you win. Winner will be mailed a Bryce Drew rookie card.

Game Preview: Loyola

Tuesday is another "biggest game of the year" game against Loyola.  Last year, in similar circumstances, Loyola came into the ARC and wiped the floor with the Crusaders in a 20 point drubbing.  Will things be different this time around?

Loyola has been the league bottom dweller all year, winning only one game against UIC.  The Ramblers have struggled this year, but do have a couple of bright spots on their roster.  Walt Gibler has had an outstanding year, but will probably not play due to a shoulder injury.  Ben Averkamp has also been playing well all year averaging 14.5ppg. Local product Joe Crisman averages nearly 9 a game, and Jordan Hicks (who led the scoring attack against Valpo last time) is scoring 8 a game.  As a team the Ramblers only average 55.6 ppg.  They played at Butler last Tuesday and kept the game close before falling by 6. 

The big question for Valpo is the health of KVW's knee.  He stayed home from the bracket buster trip to get some extra treatment and I think he his ready to go all out.  With or without a 100% healthy KVW there is no reason/excuse for Valpo to lose this game.  The Crusadesr have too many weapons offensively to be held down by an undermanned Loyola team.  Lets get to the predictions.

Looking at team wide PPS:
Valpo: 0.501115
Loyola: 0.360398

Using the PPS Valpo is clearly the more productive team.  Valpo should win this game by at least 14 points.  I'll go a little over that with my official prediction and say Valpo wins the game and the Horizon League regular season title, 66-50.