Road Shooting Woes

It has been brought up many times that Valpo struggles to shoot the ball effectively on the road.  I'd like to look at why that might be.  First lets look at our shooting percentages throughout the first 13 games and see if there actually is a discrepancy. Road games are bolded.

Game	Place	2pt %	3pt%	FT%	RESULT
Georgia S.	ARC	52.90	54.20	85.70	W
Northern Ill.	ARC	52.10	54.20	66.70	W
Nebraska	NEB	34.00	13.30	66.70	L
Kent St.	Kent	58.10	33.30	82.90	W
Chicago St	ARC	39.70	28.60	78.60	W
Bethune	ARC	54.80	53.30	74.20	W
St. Louis	StL	32.60	23.80	70.00	L
IPFW	ARC	40.80	29.40	72.00	W
New Mex	NM	48.60	44.40	61.50	L
Missouri St	MS	40.50	33.30	69.40	W
Oakland	Oak	50.90	30.40	70.00	L
IUPUI	ARC	50.00	19.00	80.80	W
Purdue Cal	ARC	54.90	40.00	60.00	W

I think it is painfully clear that our shooting is much worse when the guys are on the road versus when they are in the comfortable confines of the Athletics Recreation Center.  Shooting only 50% or better in 2 of the 6 road games compared to 5 of the 7 home games, shooting at best 33% twice on the road compared to shooting above 40% at home 4 times, and finally hitting at least 70% of the free throws only twice on the road compared with hitting better then 70% 5 times at home. Some people will say we are playing tougher opponents on the road which is true, but watching the games Valpo gets plenty of good looks that just aren't falling as frequently on the road. Why does this keep happening? There is a great video done by ESPN Sports Science on this topic.

The first thing the Sports Science crew talks about is noise.  The ARC can be one of the loudest buildings in the conference due to its small size.  I don't think the players are affected by the noise level in these other arenas.  The second aspect the crew mentions is site.  I think this is where we run into some of our problems.  The ARC is fairly dark when you move away from the court.  The darker the back drop the easier it is to focus on the rim and use those visual cues to hit those jump shots. I haven't been to many of the road games but I'd be willing to wager that many of the venues the team goes to are more brightly lit.  The final aspect that I feel also figures into our poor shooting is space.  It is no secret that the ARC is very small. Everything in the ARC is right on top of the court, the fans, the ceiling, and the the scoreboard.  Many of these other venues have higher ceilings and every single fan is not right on top of the court.

I think when Valpo does upgrade to a new facility in the near(?!) future they should take in account the dimensions of the other arenas that the team frequently plays at.  Feeling more at home when the team is on the road will help lead to higher shooting percentages and higher winning percentages!

How to Beat Murray State

Many people, yes even some Valpo fans, aren’t giving the Crusaders much of a chance on the road at Murray State this Saturday.  After running the PPS for each team, each team’s core players, as well as each teams’ opponents this year I have come to the conclusion that not only can Valpo win but they will in fact get that big road win they have been seeking.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	2625	0.82	0.32	0.50
Opponents	Valpo	2625	0.70	0.36	0.34
Murray State	MSU	2200	0.90	0.34	0.56
Opponents	MSU	2200	0.80	0.37	0.43

Murray appears to be slightly better at taking advantage of their possessions.  Valpo, appears to play the better defense as you can see by their much lower PPS allowed statistic.  Has Valpo played a weaker schedule, probably, but they have also managed to maintain their higher level of defensive play for more games.  Many people think the key to beating Murray State is to stop Isaiah Canaan.  Yes, he is an All American.  Yes, he is their top scorer.  But, having watched them play on television several times, it appears that from my couch they follow the emotional leader Ed Daniel.  Canaan is going to get his points. Crusaders fan need to hope that whoever draws the assignment of slowing him down can at least get a hand in his face and make his shots as difficult as possible.  When Valpo is on offense whoever Canaan is guarding should be running him into screens every time down the court. Lets take a look at Murray State’s individual PPS and you’ll see why I’m targeting Daniel as the key.

Murray State		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Isaiah Canaan	MSU	381	1.16	0.39	0.77
Ed Daniel	MSU	322	1.45	0.39	1.06
Stacy Wilson	MSU	333	1.04	0.47	0.57
Dexter Fields	MSU	312	0.63	0.26	0.37
Brandon Garret	MSU	279	0.74	0.27	0.47
Jeffrey Moss	MSU	159	0.45	0.25	0.20
Erik McCree	MSU	117	0.56	0.37	0.19
CJ Ford	MSU	110	0.47	0.30	0.17

Daniel is the key

Daniel’s PPS rivals a certain big man from IU. He is a monster on the boards, gets to the line a ton, and hits a decent percentage of his shots. His biggest weakness is he can get into foul trouble.  He leads the teams in personal fouls and foul outs and will most likely draw Crusader big man Kevin Van Wijk who has to be one of the best in the country at drawing fouls.  This is where Valpo can win this game.  KVW plays big and gets  Daniel in foul trouble, forces them to go to the bench, and he gets to the line this will be a great game. If KVW gets into the foul trouble then Valpo will have to lean heavily on Bobby Capobianco.  I’m calilng for Coach Drew to get the ball in the post to Kevin as much as possible Saturday afternoon, and for Valpo to resist the urge to throw up 3′s every time down the court.  I think Valpo will be able to pull this off and get the upset, 79-74.  You can find Valpo’s PPS, not including the game against PUC, http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Watch the game on ESPN3.com Saturday afternoon or on the ESPN app on your X-Box.

Improving

Our numbers, just like our play, have slowly been improving throughout the season.

http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Erik put up one of his highest PPS ever last game when he played closer to 20 minutes instead of being on the court closer to 30 minutes. Dority's numbers have gone down every game so far.  Hopefully he gets comfortable and finds his stroke.  KVW and Rowdy are playing at a higher level then last year.  I like what I'm seeing, and I'm happy to see the numbers slowly creeping higher as we get closer to conference play.

Wrapping up IUPUI

IUPUI gave Valpo all they wanted in the first half.  The Jags shot very well throughout the night hitting on 50% of their 3s and all 14 of their free throws.  But, it was their inability to rebound and defend the Crusaders in the paint that led to the Valpo victory.  

Many will accuse the Crusaders and Coach Drew of slowing down the offense when they got up by 21 points.  I did not see it this way.  IUPUI went to a zone defense to help get them back to within 10.  Valpo tried time and again to get the ball in the paint, patiently passing around the perimeter looking for an entry point.  When one couldn't be found they wound up with open looks from outside.  Those three point attempts just weren't falling (4-21).  In no way was this reminiscent to what we saw happen at Oakland the other night.  

Here are the PPS for tonights game for the Crusaders who, despite their poor outside shooting, had their highest scores of the season.  

		PPS
Ryan Broekhoff		1.1000
Kevin Van Wijk		0.9474
Lavontae Dority		0.4231
Erik Buggs		0.6000
Ben Boggs		0.8261
Will Bogan		0.2500
Bobby Capobianco		0.9000
Matt Kenney		0.8182