How to Beat Murray State

Many people, yes even some Valpo fans, aren’t giving the Crusaders much of a chance on the road at Murray State this Saturday.  After running the PPS for each team, each team’s core players, as well as each teams’ opponents this year I have come to the conclusion that not only can Valpo win but they will in fact get that big road win they have been seeking.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	2625	0.82	0.32	0.50
Opponents	Valpo	2625	0.70	0.36	0.34
Murray State	MSU	2200	0.90	0.34	0.56
Opponents	MSU	2200	0.80	0.37	0.43

Murray appears to be slightly better at taking advantage of their possessions.  Valpo, appears to play the better defense as you can see by their much lower PPS allowed statistic.  Has Valpo played a weaker schedule, probably, but they have also managed to maintain their higher level of defensive play for more games.  Many people think the key to beating Murray State is to stop Isaiah Canaan.  Yes, he is an All American.  Yes, he is their top scorer.  But, having watched them play on television several times, it appears that from my couch they follow the emotional leader Ed Daniel.  Canaan is going to get his points. Crusaders fan need to hope that whoever draws the assignment of slowing him down can at least get a hand in his face and make his shots as difficult as possible.  When Valpo is on offense whoever Canaan is guarding should be running him into screens every time down the court. Lets take a look at Murray State’s individual PPS and you’ll see why I’m targeting Daniel as the key.

Murray State		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Isaiah Canaan	MSU	381	1.16	0.39	0.77
Ed Daniel	MSU	322	1.45	0.39	1.06
Stacy Wilson	MSU	333	1.04	0.47	0.57
Dexter Fields	MSU	312	0.63	0.26	0.37
Brandon Garret	MSU	279	0.74	0.27	0.47
Jeffrey Moss	MSU	159	0.45	0.25	0.20
Erik McCree	MSU	117	0.56	0.37	0.19
CJ Ford	MSU	110	0.47	0.30	0.17

Daniel is the key

Daniel’s PPS rivals a certain big man from IU. He is a monster on the boards, gets to the line a ton, and hits a decent percentage of his shots. His biggest weakness is he can get into foul trouble.  He leads the teams in personal fouls and foul outs and will most likely draw Crusader big man Kevin Van Wijk who has to be one of the best in the country at drawing fouls.  This is where Valpo can win this game.  KVW plays big and gets  Daniel in foul trouble, forces them to go to the bench, and he gets to the line this will be a great game. If KVW gets into the foul trouble then Valpo will have to lean heavily on Bobby Capobianco.  I’m calilng for Coach Drew to get the ball in the post to Kevin as much as possible Saturday afternoon, and for Valpo to resist the urge to throw up 3′s every time down the court.  I think Valpo will be able to pull this off and get the upset, 79-74.  You can find Valpo’s PPS, not including the game against PUC, http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Watch the game on ESPN3.com Saturday afternoon or on the ESPN app on your X-Box.