Valpo vs. Loyola and CSU

If you'd like an updated look at how the entire roster is performing based on our PPS formula head here, http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Heading back to work after a long break isn’t easy for anyone, especially for middle school math teachers and mid major college basketball players. After a long layoff Valpo came out and was out played and out coached from opening tip to the ending buzzer in their horizon League opener at home against Loyola. It was hard to watch and even harder to motivate myself to calculate the PPS scores. Here they are with a brief breakdown to follow:

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Loyola	LOY	200	0.81	0.29	0.52
Valparaiso	Valpo	200	0.69	0.34	0.35

Valpo’s – score really wasn’t that bad.  However, they didn’t take advantage of their possessions and Loyola did not make many mistakes when it was their turn with the ball.  Luckily it was a short one day off and Valpo got back to their winning ways with a blowout of Horizon League foe Cleveland State.  Valpo was able to turn the tables from their previous game.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
CSU	CSU	200	0.64	0.37	0.27
Valparaiso	Valpo	200	0.90	0.38	0.52

As you can see Valpo’s – score was actually worse this game when compared to the debacle that was the Loyola game.  The Crusaders had more turnovers and more missed free throws vs. CSU.  Unlike the Loyola game Valpo was able to force the Vikings into a lower + score by out rebounding them by 16, forcing them to shoot only 30%, and allowing only 6 assists.  Meanwhile, the Crusaders put up a nice + score due again to their rebounding numbers.

Valpo will now head on a 3 game road trip squaring off against surprising UIC, a down Milwaukee team, and arch rival Detroit.

What is wrong with Valpo?

author's note: I haven't blogged yet this year, but my frustration with the current team and tonight's loss to what appears to be a very good Loyola team has brought me to my breaking point.

Never mind the debacle that was tonight's Loyola game because it is indicative of how the entire season has gone which in a word would be frustrating.  This is a team that has looked rudderless since last season's blowout title game loss.  They have at times played like the team we were expecting (see Murray State) while other times they have played absolutely lost (see Nebraska and St. Louis).   I have not had a chance to see Valpo play as much as some of you, but there are 3 things that stick out to me as being a problem this year.

1. Stagnant offense
It has become apparent that what we are doing on offense is predictable and thus easy to defend.  There has been way too much individual and not enough team.  Too many times the person with the ball drives to the basket while everyone else stands around and watches the person with the ball dribble it around for too long and then make a terrible shot.  This one falls on Coach Drew.  He is clearly is not adjusting to opponents well enough during game action and is something he needs to work on during his second year.

2. Will the Real Ben Boggs and Will Bogan please stand up?
These two were instrumental in our success last year, but this year, both have been plagued by poor decision after poor decision.  All the little things they did last year are not happening this year and quite frankly their lack of attention to detail and smart decision making is costing the team big in the amount of turnovers they are causing. Really, I could put every returning player in this category as the team as a whole looks ill prepared.

3. Starting: Dority vs. Buggs
In what is another mistake by Coach Drew Dority has been inserted into the starting lineup and Buggs is coming off the bench.  Buggs is the heart of the team and his smart decision making and tough defense are now missing at the beginning of each game.  Not to mention the fact that the team seems to actually have direction when he is in the game vs. when Dority is in the game.  Don't get me wrong I'm a fan of Dority, but his shoot first mentality and what could be a lack of understanding of what his role is could also be a factor.  I know Buggs is an offensive liability, but we have other shooters that can minimize that issue.  Plus if Butler has taught Mid Majors anything, it's that defense wins games.

Bottom Line
This team has to find itself and do it quickly before this season slips away.  Despite their record they have looked shaky the entire season.  This Crusader team is the best we've had since Bryce himself suited up for the Crusaders and quite frankly the problems begin and end with him.  I might be asking a lot from a second year coach, but now is the time to show why he's the head coach for reasons other than his last name being Drew.

I'm not throwing this season away by any stretch of the imagination, but they need to start doing some soul searching and damage control as conference schedule commences and beginning with a home loss should have everyone searching for answers.

Valpo Host Loyola & a contest

The end of the non conference portion of the schedule has come and gone with Valpo's victory at Murray State.  To start the
importantconference portion of the schedule Valpo will play host to Loyola.  The Ramblers have really played well early on and pose a real threat.  Valpo isn't the only team in this game coming off a big win, Loyola knocked off DePaul in their last game.  Here is a look at the PPS for what is sure to be a hotly contested conference opener at the ARC.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	2625	0.82	0.34	0.48
Opponents	Valpo	2625	0.70	0.36	0.34
Loyola	LOY	2400	0.77	0.31	0.46
Opponents	LOY	2400	0.70	0.34	0.36

Valpo has the slightly higher team PPS and have surrender a slightly lower PPS to their opponents when compared to Loyola.  Both teams have been turnover plagued and both teams have decent depth on their bench.  I will give the edge to Valpo, their higher PPS plus their star power plus the home court advantage will carry Valpo to the win. I think this game will be closely contested until about the last 10 minutes of the second half.  Thats when Valpo will have Averkamp and Crisman in foul trouble and Rowdy and Company will finish the Ramblers off.  I'll say final score: Valpo 73 Loyola 66.

Contest time! Predict the final score by posting it our comments section along with an email so I can contact you if you win. Winner will be mailed a Bryce Drew rookie card.

Valpo knocks off Murray State

Valpo went on the road and finally won a game against a supposedly better opponent.  This was Murray’s first lost at home to a non conference team since the dinosaurs were roaming the Kentucky hills.  Here’s a look at each teams main players and their overall score as a unit.

Player	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	35	1.03	0.31	0.72
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	28	0.61	0.57	0.04
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	22	1.09	0.55	0.54
Bobby Capobianco	Valpo	18	1.00	0.22	0.78
Ben Boggs	Valpo	23	0.61	0.22	0.39
Matt Kenney	Valpo	22	0.64	0.18	0.46
Erik Buggs	Valpo	22	0.59	0.41	0.18
Jordan Coleman	Valpo	16	1.38	0.56	0.82
Will Bogan	Valpo	14	0.21	0.14	0.07
Team	Valpo	200	0.83	0.36	0.47

Valpo dominated on the boards.  Jordan Coleman had a nice score, but his score is a bit inflated due to his lower (16) minutes.  Kevin had a nice + score, but his inability to stay out of foul trouble really hurt him. Lavonte Dority’s – score is so high because he missed 10 fg attempts.  As a team Valpo scored a bit under what they had averaged to this point, mainly due to their 10 assists vs. 17 turnovers and 66.7% ft%.

Murray State	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Isaiah Canaan	MSU	39	1.21	0.49	0.72
Ed Daniel	MSU	24	1.25	0.38	0.87
Stacy Wilson	MSU	31	0.55	0.39	0.16
Dexter Fields	MSU	34	0.62	0.12	0.50
Brandon Garret	MSU	22	0.36	0.36	0.00
Jeffrey Moss	MSU	21	0.29	0.24	0.05
Team	MSU	200	0.71	0.34	0.37

Valpo’s defense really came to play today.  They did a nice job contesting nearly every shot Canaan and company threw up there. They also managed to limit Daniel’s minutes (I called for that here, http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2012/12/how-to-beat-murray-state.html) and really made him a non-factor on the defensive end. Valpo’s depth proved to be the difference and I suspect that opposing Horizon League teams will face a similar fate when they face off against the league’s top team.