Horizon League Tournament: Round 1

The quest for the Horizon League's automatic bid into the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.  Eight of the league's ten teams will square off in round one.  3 seed Cleveland State will play host to 10 seed UIC, Valparaiso will welcome Youngstown State in 4 versus 9 matchup, the 5 seed Detroit will battle 8 seed Loyola, and 6 seed Wright State will host a game against the 7 seeded Green Bay.
See the bracket here: http://s3.amazonaws.com/hln/medias/files/45/original.pdf?1298818833

Predictions

 CSU v. UIC: CSU has Horizon League player of the year Norris Cole.  Cole has had some huge games this season and will look to continue his dominance in the tournament.  I look for Cole to come close to a triple double in this matchup.  CSU wins this one going away, 83-62.

Valpo v. YSU:  Valpo has one both of the previous matchups between these two schools including a 24 point drubbing at home back in January.  Valpo will win this one 78-65.

Detroit v. Loyola:  Detroit is a young team still learning to play together.  To me, they are one of the three teams you don't want to have to play.  Big on the inside and athletic around the perimeter.  I think Loyola will hang around but fall in the final 10 minutes.  Final score 73-67.

Wright State v. Green Bay:  If you are looking for an upset here it is. I think Green Bay will pound the ball inside to their 7 footer who will score until the double teams start coming.  It will then be up to the guys on the perimeter to hit a few shots.  Green Bay takes it in a nail biter, 74-71.

All Conference

Congratulations Brandon Wood on being voted first team All Horizon League.  Great regular season!

Click here to see the rest of the Horizon League awards: http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/cole-near-unanimous-player-of-the-year-wins-defensive-player-of-the-year-in-postseason-awards-balloting.html

Game Recap: Goodbye Seniors

On Saturday night, the Crusaders were able to send Cory Johnson, Howard Little, and Michael Rogers out winners in their final regular season home game at Valparaiso University with a 79-65 victory over conference foe UIC.  The trio combined for 28 points, 19 rebounds, and 8 assists.

Since I was participating in a fundraiser for Prevent Child Abuse Porter County (pcapc.org) I was unable to attend the game and will have to rely on the few text messages and the box score to guide me through this post.  Valpo was able to jump on UIC early and often building a quick 14-2 lead to start the game.  By halftime the lead had grown to 13 poitns.  UIC battled back behind Robo Kreps (21 points, 5 three pointers) and Paul Carter (21 points) and managed to make it a 4 point game with 5:30 remaining in the second half.  The Crusaders then went on a quick 6-0 run to rebuild the lead and effectively end UIC's hope of a comeback.  Valpo was led by Johnson's 18 points and Brandon Wood's 14 points. 

Some key statistics from this game:  Valpo had a large advantage over UIC in bench points (30-8), points in the paint (50-18), and rebounds (45-33).  The Crusaders also took care of the basketball, turning it over only 12 times while assisting on 20 of their 29 made hoops.

Valpo will take the number four seed, their highest seed ever since joining the Horizon League, into the Horizon League tournament which begins this week.  Tuesday night the Crusaders will host Youngstown State in a 4 v. 9 matchup at the ARC beginning at 7pm.

Tournament Possibilities

The following was taken from horizonleague.org:

Scenarios:
Milwaukee
-- Clinches No. 1 seed with win
-- Clinches No. 1 seed with loss AND Butler loss AND Cleveland State loss (Valpo win/loss does not factor)
-- Clinches No. 2 seed with loss AND Cleveland State loss AND Butler win
-- Clinches No. 2 seed with loss AND Butler loss AND Cleveland State win

Butler
-- Clinches no worse than No. 2 seed with win
-- Clinches No. 1 seed with win AND Milwaukee loss (wins tiebreaker over Cleveland State)
-- Clinches No. 2 seed with loss AND Valparaiso win AND Cleveland State loss (3-1 record against the two)

Cleveland State
-- Clinches no worse than No. 3 seed with win
-- Clinches No. 1 seed with win AND Butler loss AND Milwaukee loss
-- Clinches No. 2 seed with win AND Butler win AND Milwaukee loss
-- Clinches No. 2 seed with win AND Butler loss AND Milwaukee win

Valparaiso
-- Has Clinched no worse than No. 4 seed (swept Wright State)
-- Clinches No. 2 seed with win AND Cleveland State loss AND Butler loss AND Milwaukee loss (four-way tie)
-- Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND Cleveland State loss AND Butler loss (2-2 combined record)
-- Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND Cleveland State loss AND Butler win (wins tiebreaker over CSU with Butler win)
-- Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND Cleveland State loss AND Milwaukee loss (wins tiebreaker over CSU with Butler win)
-- Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND Cleveland State win AND Butler loss (wins tiebreaker over Butler with UWM win)

Detroit
-- Has clinched No. 5 seed (swept Wright State)

Wright State
-- Has secured No. 6 seed

Green Bay
-- Clinches No. 7 seed with win
-- Clinches No. 7 seed with loss AND Loyola loss
-- Clinches No. 7 seed with loss AND Loyola loss AND Valparaiso win (must have Valparaiso finish ahead of Butler)

Loyola
-- Clinches No. 7 seed with win AND Green Bay loss AND Valparaiso loss (must have Butler finish ahead of Valparaiso)

Youngstown State
-- Clinches No. 9 seed with win AND/OR UIC loss

UIC
-- Clinches No. 9 seed with win AND Youngstown State loss


How I think it will play out:
1) Milwaukee
2) Butler
3) Cleveland State
4) Valparaiso
5) Detroit
6) Wright State
7) Green Bay
8) Loyola
9) Youngstown State
10) UIC

Max Power's tournament predictions will come out on Monday.

Game Preview: Valpo vs. UIC

Valpo has lost two in a row and their last three Horizon League contests.  This slump has pushed them out of contention for one of the top two seeds and they need a win to lock up the four seed for the conference tournament.  It will be Senior night at the ARC as the Crusaders will try to send off Cory Johnson, Howard Little, and Michael Rogers with a final regular season home victory.

Previously vs. UIC:  The Crusaders' first league game of the year was against UIC back on December 2 in Chicago.  VU was able to brush off a poor performance from behind the arc (14%) to win the game in OT.  Valpo did an excellent job on UIC guard Robo Kreps, holding there best scorer to a 1-13 shooting performance.

If Valpo wants to win:  They will need to have gotten some rest between their game Thursday night and this game.  Thursday night Valpo looked worn down as their shots continually fell short of their mark, passes were not crisp, and the players just looked slow.  Look for the Crusaders to try and get Brandon Wood and Ryan Broekhoff going from behind the arc early in this one.

Player(s) to watch:  Valpo's seniors.  I look for this trio to combine for 35 points, 15 rebounds, and their usual stellar defense.  For UIC watch out for Robo Kreps (best name in the Horizon League?) and Paul Carter.  They have managed to form a very good inside/outside combination over the course of the season and could cause the Crusaders problems.

Prediction:  Valpo wins this one 78-71.

Game recap: slow, tired, and uninspired

What went wrong:  Could you tell it was the team's thrid game in five days?  An overall aweful performance by the Crusaders at home Thursday night against Loyola.  Defensively, Valpo had no answers for the guard trio of Stanley (15pts, 7 rbs), Hill (20 pts, 7 rbs), and McCammon (16 pts).  Valpo was outrebounded on the night 37-27 and gave up 12 rebounds on the offensive glass. 

Offensively, nearly eveyone struggled.  Valpo shot all of 8% from behind the arc and only 35% for the game from the field.  One bright spot on the night was our player to watch, Cory Johnson, who bounced back from a dismal Monday night performance to post a team leading 15 points.

The Crusaders did manage to hang around cutting the Rambler lead to 3 midway through the second half on a Jay Harris three pointer.  After a Loyola timeout, the Ramblers went on a run to pull away and close out the Crusaders 68-48. 

 Milwaukee tried to help the Crusaders out tonight by beating Cleveland State on the road 87-83.  Tonights loss knocks Valpo out of a chance at one of the top two coveted seeds for the league tournament.  They now will try to hang on to the 4th spot to get themselves a couple home games for next week's tournament.

Up next:  Valpo will host UIC Saturday night at 7pm.  It is senior night, so unless you are attending the Prevent Child Abuse Porter County fundraising gala you should be at the ARC cheering on Cory Johnson, Howard Little, and Michael Rogers.

Game Preview: Valpo hosting Loyola

Thursday night Valpo welcomes in the Loyola Ramblers into the ARC for their third game in five days.  The Crusaders are looking to bounce back after a disappointing overtime loss at Green Bay on Monday night.  Valpo seemingly has lost it's chance at taking the number one seed, however there is still plenty to play for these last two games as they try to position themselves for a run at the Horizon League's automatic bid.

Previously vs. Loyola:  These two teams matched up way back in December in Chicago where Valpo defeated Loyola 66 to 56.  In that game Valpo outrebounded Loyola by 10 and held them under 35% shooting from the field.  The Crusaders did not take very good care of the ball in that game turning it over 19 times and getting only 13 assists.

Players to watch:  For Valpo, look for Cory Johnson to have a bounce back game. At Green Bay on Monday, Johnson had a game to forget scoring only 2 points while committing 5 turnovers.  Last time against Loyola, Johnson poured in 14 points and had 8 rebounds.