Valpo Host Loyola & a contest

The end of the non conference portion of the schedule has come and gone with Valpo's victory at Murray State.  To start the
importantconference portion of the schedule Valpo will play host to Loyola.  The Ramblers have really played well early on and pose a real threat.  Valpo isn't the only team in this game coming off a big win, Loyola knocked off DePaul in their last game.  Here is a look at the PPS for what is sure to be a hotly contested conference opener at the ARC.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	2625	0.82	0.34	0.48
Opponents	Valpo	2625	0.70	0.36	0.34
Loyola	LOY	2400	0.77	0.31	0.46
Opponents	LOY	2400	0.70	0.34	0.36

Valpo has the slightly higher team PPS and have surrender a slightly lower PPS to their opponents when compared to Loyola.  Both teams have been turnover plagued and both teams have decent depth on their bench.  I will give the edge to Valpo, their higher PPS plus their star power plus the home court advantage will carry Valpo to the win. I think this game will be closely contested until about the last 10 minutes of the second half.  Thats when Valpo will have Averkamp and Crisman in foul trouble and Rowdy and Company will finish the Ramblers off.  I'll say final score: Valpo 73 Loyola 66.

Contest time! Predict the final score by posting it our comments section along with an email so I can contact you if you win. Winner will be mailed a Bryce Drew rookie card.

Valpo knocks off Murray State

Valpo went on the road and finally won a game against a supposedly better opponent.  This was Murray’s first lost at home to a non conference team since the dinosaurs were roaming the Kentucky hills.  Here’s a look at each teams main players and their overall score as a unit.

Player	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	35	1.03	0.31	0.72
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	28	0.61	0.57	0.04
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	22	1.09	0.55	0.54
Bobby Capobianco	Valpo	18	1.00	0.22	0.78
Ben Boggs	Valpo	23	0.61	0.22	0.39
Matt Kenney	Valpo	22	0.64	0.18	0.46
Erik Buggs	Valpo	22	0.59	0.41	0.18
Jordan Coleman	Valpo	16	1.38	0.56	0.82
Will Bogan	Valpo	14	0.21	0.14	0.07
Team	Valpo	200	0.83	0.36	0.47

Valpo dominated on the boards.  Jordan Coleman had a nice score, but his score is a bit inflated due to his lower (16) minutes.  Kevin had a nice + score, but his inability to stay out of foul trouble really hurt him. Lavonte Dority’s – score is so high because he missed 10 fg attempts.  As a team Valpo scored a bit under what they had averaged to this point, mainly due to their 10 assists vs. 17 turnovers and 66.7% ft%.

Murray State	School	Minutes	+	-	PPS
Isaiah Canaan	MSU	39	1.21	0.49	0.72
Ed Daniel	MSU	24	1.25	0.38	0.87
Stacy Wilson	MSU	31	0.55	0.39	0.16
Dexter Fields	MSU	34	0.62	0.12	0.50
Brandon Garret	MSU	22	0.36	0.36	0.00
Jeffrey Moss	MSU	21	0.29	0.24	0.05
Team	MSU	200	0.71	0.34	0.37

Valpo’s defense really came to play today.  They did a nice job contesting nearly every shot Canaan and company threw up there. They also managed to limit Daniel’s minutes (I called for that here, http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2012/12/how-to-beat-murray-state.html) and really made him a non-factor on the defensive end. Valpo’s depth proved to be the difference and I suspect that opposing Horizon League teams will face a similar fate when they face off against the league’s top team.

Road Shooting Woes

It has been brought up many times that Valpo struggles to shoot the ball effectively on the road.  I'd like to look at why that might be.  First lets look at our shooting percentages throughout the first 13 games and see if there actually is a discrepancy. Road games are bolded.

Game	Place	2pt %	3pt%	FT%	RESULT
Georgia S.	ARC	52.90	54.20	85.70	W
Northern Ill.	ARC	52.10	54.20	66.70	W
Nebraska	NEB	34.00	13.30	66.70	L
Kent St.	Kent	58.10	33.30	82.90	W
Chicago St	ARC	39.70	28.60	78.60	W
Bethune	ARC	54.80	53.30	74.20	W
St. Louis	StL	32.60	23.80	70.00	L
IPFW	ARC	40.80	29.40	72.00	W
New Mex	NM	48.60	44.40	61.50	L
Missouri St	MS	40.50	33.30	69.40	W
Oakland	Oak	50.90	30.40	70.00	L
IUPUI	ARC	50.00	19.00	80.80	W
Purdue Cal	ARC	54.90	40.00	60.00	W

I think it is painfully clear that our shooting is much worse when the guys are on the road versus when they are in the comfortable confines of the Athletics Recreation Center.  Shooting only 50% or better in 2 of the 6 road games compared to 5 of the 7 home games, shooting at best 33% twice on the road compared to shooting above 40% at home 4 times, and finally hitting at least 70% of the free throws only twice on the road compared with hitting better then 70% 5 times at home. Some people will say we are playing tougher opponents on the road which is true, but watching the games Valpo gets plenty of good looks that just aren't falling as frequently on the road. Why does this keep happening? There is a great video done by ESPN Sports Science on this topic.

The first thing the Sports Science crew talks about is noise.  The ARC can be one of the loudest buildings in the conference due to its small size.  I don't think the players are affected by the noise level in these other arenas.  The second aspect the crew mentions is site.  I think this is where we run into some of our problems.  The ARC is fairly dark when you move away from the court.  The darker the back drop the easier it is to focus on the rim and use those visual cues to hit those jump shots. I haven't been to many of the road games but I'd be willing to wager that many of the venues the team goes to are more brightly lit.  The final aspect that I feel also figures into our poor shooting is space.  It is no secret that the ARC is very small. Everything in the ARC is right on top of the court, the fans, the ceiling, and the the scoreboard.  Many of these other venues have higher ceilings and every single fan is not right on top of the court.

I think when Valpo does upgrade to a new facility in the near(?!) future they should take in account the dimensions of the other arenas that the team frequently plays at.  Feeling more at home when the team is on the road will help lead to higher shooting percentages and higher winning percentages!

How to Beat Murray State

Many people, yes even some Valpo fans, aren’t giving the Crusaders much of a chance on the road at Murray State this Saturday.  After running the PPS for each team, each team’s core players, as well as each teams’ opponents this year I have come to the conclusion that not only can Valpo win but they will in fact get that big road win they have been seeking.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	2625	0.82	0.32	0.50
Opponents	Valpo	2625	0.70	0.36	0.34
Murray State	MSU	2200	0.90	0.34	0.56
Opponents	MSU	2200	0.80	0.37	0.43

Murray appears to be slightly better at taking advantage of their possessions.  Valpo, appears to play the better defense as you can see by their much lower PPS allowed statistic.  Has Valpo played a weaker schedule, probably, but they have also managed to maintain their higher level of defensive play for more games.  Many people think the key to beating Murray State is to stop Isaiah Canaan.  Yes, he is an All American.  Yes, he is their top scorer.  But, having watched them play on television several times, it appears that from my couch they follow the emotional leader Ed Daniel.  Canaan is going to get his points. Crusaders fan need to hope that whoever draws the assignment of slowing him down can at least get a hand in his face and make his shots as difficult as possible.  When Valpo is on offense whoever Canaan is guarding should be running him into screens every time down the court. Lets take a look at Murray State’s individual PPS and you’ll see why I’m targeting Daniel as the key.

Murray State		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Isaiah Canaan	MSU	381	1.16	0.39	0.77
Ed Daniel	MSU	322	1.45	0.39	1.06
Stacy Wilson	MSU	333	1.04	0.47	0.57
Dexter Fields	MSU	312	0.63	0.26	0.37
Brandon Garret	MSU	279	0.74	0.27	0.47
Jeffrey Moss	MSU	159	0.45	0.25	0.20
Erik McCree	MSU	117	0.56	0.37	0.19
CJ Ford	MSU	110	0.47	0.30	0.17

Daniel is the key

Daniel’s PPS rivals a certain big man from IU. He is a monster on the boards, gets to the line a ton, and hits a decent percentage of his shots. His biggest weakness is he can get into foul trouble.  He leads the teams in personal fouls and foul outs and will most likely draw Crusader big man Kevin Van Wijk who has to be one of the best in the country at drawing fouls.  This is where Valpo can win this game.  KVW plays big and gets  Daniel in foul trouble, forces them to go to the bench, and he gets to the line this will be a great game. If KVW gets into the foul trouble then Valpo will have to lean heavily on Bobby Capobianco.  I’m calilng for Coach Drew to get the ball in the post to Kevin as much as possible Saturday afternoon, and for Valpo to resist the urge to throw up 3′s every time down the court.  I think Valpo will be able to pull this off and get the upset, 79-74.  You can find Valpo’s PPS, not including the game against PUC, http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Watch the game on ESPN3.com Saturday afternoon or on the ESPN app on your X-Box.

Improving

Our numbers, just like our play, have slowly been improving throughout the season.

http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Erik put up one of his highest PPS ever last game when he played closer to 20 minutes instead of being on the court closer to 30 minutes. Dority's numbers have gone down every game so far.  Hopefully he gets comfortable and finds his stroke.  KVW and Rowdy are playing at a higher level then last year.  I like what I'm seeing, and I'm happy to see the numbers slowly creeping higher as we get closer to conference play.

Wrapping up IUPUI

IUPUI gave Valpo all they wanted in the first half.  The Jags shot very well throughout the night hitting on 50% of their 3s and all 14 of their free throws.  But, it was their inability to rebound and defend the Crusaders in the paint that led to the Valpo victory.  

Many will accuse the Crusaders and Coach Drew of slowing down the offense when they got up by 21 points.  I did not see it this way.  IUPUI went to a zone defense to help get them back to within 10.  Valpo tried time and again to get the ball in the paint, patiently passing around the perimeter looking for an entry point.  When one couldn't be found they wound up with open looks from outside.  Those three point attempts just weren't falling (4-21).  In no way was this reminiscent to what we saw happen at Oakland the other night.  

Here are the PPS for tonights game for the Crusaders who, despite their poor outside shooting, had their highest scores of the season.  

		PPS
Ryan Broekhoff		1.1000
Kevin Van Wijk		0.9474
Lavontae Dority		0.4231
Erik Buggs		0.6000
Ben Boggs		0.8261
Will Bogan		0.2500
Bobby Capobianco		0.9000
Matt Kenney		0.8182

11 Game Wrap Up

With the first 1/3 or so of the season behind us I thought now would be a good time to break down some statistics.  The team's 7-4 record is not bad, but many fans (and probably players and coaches) were expecting a little more.  The Crusaders should be favored in 2 or their final 3 non conference games before beginning conference play on January 3rd leading to at least a 9-5 record heading into that first conference game against Loyola. 

On to the numbers.  The Crusaders' play has not been anywhere near what we were hoping for.  Only Kenney (30 assist/27 turnovers) and Buggs (46 assist/32 turnovers) have more assists then turnovers.  In fact, the assist/turnover ratio of .76 is the biggest factor in the team not having more success.  The high rate of turnovers as well as the high amount of fouls the team is committing is what is keeping the team's PPS lower then it should be.

Player	School	PPS-O	PPS-D	PPS
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	1.2222	0.5000	0.7222
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	1.1633	0.2865	0.8768
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	1.2451	0.4047	0.8405
Bobby Capobianco	Valpo	0.9664	0.4706	0.4958
Ben Boggs	Valpo	0.5598	0.2819	0.2780
Jordan Coleman	Valpo	0.6991	0.2963	0.4028
Matt Kenney	Valpo	0.6598	0.3527	0.3071
Erik Buggs	Valpo	0.5710	0.3218	0.2492
Will Bogan	Valpo	0.3420	0.2305	0.1115
Alex Rossi	Valpo	0.7097	0.2581	0.4516
Vashil Fernandez	Valpo	0.4159	0.2832	0.1327

Dority, Capobianco, and KVW's PPS-D (this is the bad stuff they do on the court) are all way to high for guys expected to play big roles.  If they can cut down on fouling (KVW/Capo) and turnovers (all) those PPS-D will drop and the team will see more success.  I think with Dority's addition we will see Kenney's turnovers drop, Bogan's shooting % rise, and the overall efficiency and success of the team improve.  These last three games need to be used to get a normal rotation set, and to get Dority and everyone else comfortable with their roles.

PPS Preview: Oakland

Our PPS hit it right on the head with the Valpo/Missouri State game.  Scores held true and Valpo held on for a nice road win.  Lets take a look at PPS for tomorrow nights game at Oakland.

		PPS-O	PPS-D	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	0.7654	0.3195	0.4459
Opponents	Valpo	0.6874	0.3541	0.3333

		PPS-O	PPS-D	PPS
Oakland	OAK	0.8207	0.3620	0.4588
Opponents	OAK	0.8899	0.3481	0.5417

These teams have played the exact same amount of minutes to date.  Looking at the PPS for tomorrow's game, I'd again give the edge to Valpo even though this is a road game.  The home court advantage should be minimal as the student body is gone for Christmas break.  Valpo and Oakland are averaging nearly the same PPS, however Oakland's opponents are scoring at a much higher rate then Valpo's.  Oakland has been out rebounded and out shot (% wise) by their opponents on the year.  Valpo has done a great job winning the rebounding battle night in and night out.  I'll say Valpo controls the rebounding and uses their size to win this game by 5-8 points.

Valpo is finally playing at full strength with the addition of Lavontae Dority (LVD).  LVD went off in his first game as a Crusader, leading the team in scoring and PPS Saturday night against Missouri State.  Here are the PPS for the team through the first 10 games of the season. Remember a .7 and above is an all conference player and a .85 and up is an NBA level talent.

Player	School	PPS-O	PPS-D	PPS
Lavontae Dority	Valpo	1.6250	0.4583	1.1667
Ryan Broekhoff	Valpo	1.1956	0.2902	0.9054
Kevin Van Wijk	Valpo	1.2735	0.4017	0.8718
Bobby Capobianco	Valpo	0.9583	0.5104	0.4479
Matt Kenney	Valpo	0.6864	0.3591	0.3273
Ben Boggs	Valpo	0.5401	0.2954	0.2447
Jordan Coleman	Valpo	0.6750	0.2800	0.3950
Erik Buggs	Valpo	0.5704	0.3230	0.2474
Will Bogan	Valpo	0.3487	0.2337	0.1149
Alex Rossi	Valpo	0.7097	0.2581	0.4516
Vashil Fernandez	Valpo	0.4298	0.2895	0.1404

PPS Preview of Missouri State

Here is a look at the PPS for Missouri State and what they have allowed to their opponents this season.

		PPS-O	PPS-D	PPS
Missouri State	MSU	0.7036	0.3764	0.3271
Opponents	MSU	0.7748	0.3348	0.4400

They have really struggled at rebounding, keeping teams off the free throw line, and defending the paint.  Valpo really thrives at rebounding and KVW and Broekhoff are pretty good about drawing fouls and getting to the line.  Next we'll look at Valpo's PPS and what they have allowed so far this season to their opponents.

		PPS-O	PPS-D	PPS
Valparaiso	Valpo	0.7633	0.3145	0.4488
Opponents	Valpo	0.6970	0.3523	0.3447

I thought it was pretty neat how close the teams' scores are in relation to what they have given up this season.  Neither of the scores are where a league contender should be scoring at, some of that has to do with poor play while another part might be due to the teams they have faced so far.  To get an idea of what the Big Ten teams are scoring out at right now click here.  Valpo only scores higher then Nebraska (who we lost to earlier in the fall) and Penn State.

I'm interested to see how the addition of Lavontae Dority helps move the other players to their normal position will affect the team and individual PPS.

VU vs. Milwaukee Fan Bus

Valparaiso University will be offering a fan bus to the game in Milwaukee on January 12. Come join me and a bunch of other Crusader alumni!

YOU'RE INVITED... The Valpo Club of Milwaukee invites you to... VALPO VS. UW-MILWAUKEE MEN'S BASKETBALL

Saturday, Jan. 12, 2013 8 a.m. – Ride to the game with us! Chartered bus departs from the Valpo Athletics and Recreation Center The cost is $30 per person and the bus will arrive back in Valpo by 8 p.m. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. - Alumni and Fan Gathering, Hosted by Andy Nunemaker 2221 N. Terrace Ave Milwaukee, WI 53202 Join Valpo alumni and friends before the game for a buffet lunch and beverages. Also, a dessert reception will be offered following the game.

A complimentary shuttle will transport fans from the Nunemaker residence and back. The cost is $30 per person and includes lunch and a chairback game ticket. 1 p.m. Tip-off Klotsche Center 3406 N. Downer Ave. Milwaukee, WI 53211 5 p.m.

Bus departs for Valpo Register online at valpo.edu/alumni/events, or contact the Valparaiso University Office of Alumni Relations at 800.833.6792, ext. 23. The deadline to register is Friday, Dec. 21st. No refunds will be given after this date.

Game Wrap Up: New Mexico

Valpo traveled to New Mexico to take on the #18 Lobos Saturday night.  Unfortunately, Ryan Broekhoff was the only Crusader who came ready to play.  Broekhoff filled the stat sheet with 24 points, 2 assists, 2 steals, and only 1 turnover.  I mention the turnover only because that was the Crusaders undoing on this night.  A season high 22 turnovers helped in the Lobos knocking off Valpo 65-52 (didn't even cover the 10 point spread).

The Crusader defense played well it sounded like.  The Lobos shot under 43% from the field.  While the shot defense was good, the Crusaders only managed to force 10 turnovers and sent New Mexico to the line 30 times (this could be inflated a bit since it was a semi close game).

Valpo has played through a tough non-conference schedule this year and currently sits at 6-3 with the only questionable loss coming at Nebraska.  Lavontae Dority will see his first action next Saturday when the Crusaders visit Missouri State.  We are all excited to see what he can bring to the point guard position as he will start off as Buggs' backup.

Tonights PPS - I only took our guys that played 10 minutes or more, and did their starters plus 1.  Note, I forgot to plug in the rebounds when I figured our PPS for the first 8 games.  Check that post for updated numbers.

Valpo

Broekhoff	1.08571428571429
KVW	0.0909090909090909
Buggs	0.114285714285714
Boggs	-0.411764705882353
Coleman	0.285714285714286
Kenney	-0.0952380952380952
Capo	0.285714285714286
Bogan	0.269230769230769

  

New Mexico

Adams	0.5
Kirk	0.708333333333333
Snell	0.172413793103448
Greenwood	0.5
Walker	0.666666666666667
Williams	0.388888888888889

 

PPS - 1st 8 Games

Lets see if I remember how to do this.  PPS is a statistical breakdown of how effective a player is while on the court. We look only at the numbers in categories that appear in a box score: points, rebounds, assists, fts, fgs, steals, turnovers, blocked shots, missed fts, missed fgs, fouls, and minutes played.
Here are the scores of last years 1st Team All Horizon League players:


Ryan Broekhoff, G/F, Valpo Jr (HL Player of the Year) - 0.8118
Kevin Van Wijk, F, Valpo Jr - 0.8108
Kendrick Perry, G, Youngstown State So - 0.70154
Ray McCallum, G, Detroit So - 0.65822
Alec Brown, C, Green Bay So - 0.74627

Here is where our guys sit after the first 8 games:

Broekhoff 0.8857
KVW 0.9839
Kenney 0.3809
Boggs 0.2959
Coleman 0.4216
Buggs 0.3127
Capo 0.5272
Bogan 0.1194
Rossi 0.4516
Fernandez 0.2038

I'm Back

I'm back baby!

I'm back, but won't be quite as active as before. My wife's persistence and a twitter battle has brought me back to this. It is also getting darker earlier now so our outside activities are just about nonexistent and we can only play so much kinect. First real post coming up later this evening.  

While We've Been Away

Being a full time father of 2 young boys, husband, and school teacher makes it hard to be much of a blogger.  Add in the fact that the weather has been unseasonably warm and the fish have been biting, and finding time to make a post becomes that much more difficult.  Here is what has happened since we last posted.

* Valpo lost to Miami in the first round of the NIT.  Good effort, but it is hard to win with your only two back up guards out sick and your top player just getting over being ill.

* Valpo added two new transfers in Lavonte Dority and Jordan Coleman.  Both appear ready to contribute immediately.  Dority looks like a point guard who can score while Coleman appears to be more of a 2 guard.  Both will add much needed athleticism.  Scroll down a little bit and you can find an interview with Dority from Scouting the Mid Majors.

* Bryce Drew was leaving us for Mississippi State, then he wasn't, then he signed a multi year extension.  I'm not sure if he is a lifer, if he will wait for the right job to come around, or if he just stayed due to health concerns with his family, but I'm glad we have Coach back for another year.  These bigger job offers will continue every year that Valpo has success so, hopefully, get used to this drama.

* Richie Edwards and Hrvoje Vucic will not be back next year.  Sounds to me like Richie was a bit homesick and probably expected more minutes, while Vucic must have recognized his role at Valpo was never going to materialize.

* Former head coach Homer Drew was given the "Keys to Life" award from Legends of the Hardwood.  We tweeted this several weeks in advance (@sectionee).  Congratulations Coach Homer Drew!

* Talk continues on the fanzone message board about the need to upgrade facilities.  Be patient, it is in the master plan.  A new campaign starts soon.  Oh, and the athletes need to realize the importance to give back to their universities. 

* The prospects for another successful season are great.  With the incoming transfers teaming up with Vashil Fernandez and Bobby Capobianco (both of which are a bit of a mystery) along with the returning players Valpo should be right back on top of the Horizon League.

Thanks for checking in.  We will continue to post from time to time, probably more so in the Summer when school lets out.

Game Preview: Valpo at Miami

The Crusaders, after a crushing loss in the Horizon League Championship (not to belabour this any more than necessary) were automatically NIT bound by winning the regular season Horizon League crown. The Crusaders were given a 7 seed, and will head down to Miami to take on the 2nd seeded Hurricanes on Wednesday night. It is definitely no easy draw for Valpo, since size and athleticism is what ultimately wore them down last time out.

Last time out: Nice 1st half, ugly 2nd half. You guys know what happened, so I feel like it is not necessary to elaborate on this.

Preview: Horizon League Player of the Year Ryan Broekhoff and Horizon League 1st teamer Kevin Van Wijk have been the ones Valpo has counted on to carry the offensive load all season. We should expect no difference this game. The problem is that Miami is a team with lots of size and athleticism, and can overmatch the Crusaders in that regard. Van Wijk has made himself known for his physical play, so he will be especially important in this contest. Throughout the season we have seen how important it is for Valpo to have someone step up and act as a third scorer. Offensive balance has been a big strength for them this year. Miami has 4 players that average double figures in scoring, so Valpo will have their hands more than full trying to contain them. However, as a team they are not that great behind the arc (35%). Their field goal percentage (43%) and free throw percentage (72%) are fairly average. The one player that will probably be a huge problem for Valpo is Kenny Kadji. The 6-11, 251 lb junior leads the team with his 12.3 PPG and 5.5 RPG. Van Wijk will have a tough assignment.

In order for Valpo to have a chance in this one, we need our 2 workhorses to produce, knock down a lot of threes, and limit the Miami big men on things like second chance points, and getting Van Wijk into foul trouble. I usually do not like to pick against Valpo (and maybe you guys will rip me a little bit for not having enough faith in them), but I do not think we will win this one. I believe we have a good chance, but when it is all said and done I don't see Valpo on the winning end.

Prediction - Miami 74 Valpo 63'

Notables alumni from U. of Miami include Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Ben Folds, Grammy Award Winner Bruce Hornsby, and Sylvester Stallone.

Game Wrap Up: We were this close

In a rebuilding year many would've been thrilled with the prospects of playing in the NIT, but when you come so close (10 minutes away) from the NCAA's it's hard not to be disappointed.  Valpo continually built upon every game this year to turn a rebuilding year into a championship season.

Detroit used stellar defense and a relentless offense to turn a three point halftime deficet into a twenty point victory.  The refs decided to let Detroit play physical on the ball defense and Valpo was unable to adjust on the offensive end continually turning the ball over leading to easy scores for Detroit.  Detroit was the last team I wanted to see in the tournament, and they proved why last night.  The Titans team celebrated with class, well all but Ray McCallum Jr.  Ray's dunk as time was expiring and everyone else was shaking hands was immature and classless.  He will not be the superstar he is capable of becoming until he grows up a little bit.  I was ready to say the fans were also classy in their celebrations, but the vandalism around town proved otherwise.

Valpo will now wait until Sunday night to see who and where they will play in the NIT.  I'm betting it is either Iowa or Northwestern from the Big10 but we shall see.  Stick around SectionEE as we will have some first and second round NCAA picks as well as many more statistics and PPS for players and teams.  You may be interested to know that out of the 9 HL tournament games if you picked the winner based on PPS you would have correctly selected 8 out of the 9 with the 1 miss coming in the Butler vs. Milwaukee game.

Game Wrap Up: Any more doubters out there?

If there were any doubters heading into the game Saturday night (I'm looking at you Vegas odds makers) the Crusaders certainly had to have changed their minds.  Butler started out to an 7-2 lead, the teams would tie the score at 8-8 but that would be the last time Butler was close.  Valpo would ride the amazing play of Ryan Broekhoff and some timely shooting by Erik Buggs (not a typo) and Jay Harris.  The ARC was on fire last night with crowd pushing the facility to it's limits.

After Butler got out to that early lead, Brent made the suggestion that our super subs would get things turned around for us.  Boy was he right.  That first substitution of Richie Edwards (apparently my wife's favorite player), Matt Kenney and Jay Harris turned the tide in the Crusader's favor.  The story of this night however was Ryan Broekhoff.  He filled up the box score with 19 points (6-9 fg, 5-6 ft, 2-3 3pt) and 16 rebounds.  At one point in the game Brent and I made a bet on whether he would have more points or rebounds...I lost and bought the drinks and appetizers at Wings Etc. after the game.  Ryan's hustle, energy, and always being in the right place at the right time (coincidence, I think not) are huge for the Crusaders as he is always creating extra scoring chances for the team.  If there was anybody in the league not thinking he should be the POY they are certainly on board now.

Coach Stevens had to be frustrated last night.  No defensive strategy seemed to work and his offense was not converting against Valpo's suddnely stingy defense.  Butler went with the Hack - a - Buggs strategy with about 7 minutes left in the game when it was obvious they weren't going to be able to chip away at the lead playing defense. 

Player of the Game: Ryan Broekhoff - 19 points, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, and several amazing hustle plays (like when he saved a lose ball after a missed Buggs free throw and banged it off a Butler player creating another possession which would end in a Jay Harris 3pter).
1.303 PPS

POTG Runner Up: Erik Buggs - this was a tough call between Buggs and KVW.  I'm going with Erik because I thought those two 3 pointers he hit were so important.  While his free throw shooting left something to be desired when Butler went to the hack a buggs with 7 minutes left in the game, he managed to keep his cool and stay in the game.  He also played excellent defense (as did the whole team) on Ronald Nored holding him to only 4 points.

Up Next: The Crusaders will try to wrap up the conference tournament Tuesday night at home against Detroit at 8pm.  

All Conference PPS 2012

Last summer I started tracking a stat for player productivity.  This all started with a discussion between Jack Sikma and myself about whether or not Jimmer was a great player or just a great scorer.  As the days have passed and as we've researched and followed more players and teams, I have come to the conclusion that a PPS of 0.7 is an all conference level player.  This seems to be holding true to both a mid major league like the Horizon as well as a major conference like the Big 10 (Jack is tracking).  A score of .9 or above represents a potential national player of the year and a guy who should certainly make hay in the NBA.  Since the Horizon has announced their first teamers I thought I'd share each guy's PPS. 

Ryan Broekhoff, G/F, Valpo Jr (HL Player of the Year) - 0.8118
Kevin Van Wijk, F, Valpo Jr - 0.8108
Kendrick Perry, G, Youngstown State So - 0.70154
Ray McCallum, G, Detroit So - 0.65822
Alec Brown, C, Green Bay So - 0.74627

Predicting the HL tournament: PPS

I ran my PPS for each Horizon League team.  I will show you the results then try to predict the first two rounds of the tournament using the PPS.  Since, the semis require several teams to play on back to back nights I don't think I can put as much weight on PPS as a predictor.  Originally I wanted to just look at the stats from conference play, but that proved to be more work than I was interested in doing at this time.  So the following numbers are based on each team's entire season. I will list the team (where they finished in the league) and then their PPS.

1) Detroit (3)         0.527
2) Valpo (1)           0.500
3) YSU (6)              0.462
4) CSU  (2)             0.457
5) Green Bay (7)   0.449
6) Milwaukee (4)   0.428
7) Butler  (5)         0.416
8) UIC  (9)              0.378
9) Loyola (10)        0.369
10) WSU  (8)          0.342

Ok, lets give this a try. 
Round 1
Detroit vs. Loyola        Detroit wins by 16
YSU vs. Green Bay       YSU wins by 2
Milwaukee vs. UIC       Milwaukee wins by 5
Butler vs. WSU             Butler wins by 7

Round 2
Detroit vs. YSU            Detroit wins by 6
Butler vs. Milwaukee  Milwaukee wins by 1

So, I predict that the semis will feature Cleveland State vs. Detroit and Valpo vs. Milwaukee.  Like I said above, I don't think PPS can be used much since Detroit and Milwaukee will have had to play in back to back nights.  I like Valpo and Cleveland State to hold serve and face off in a heavyweight title match at the ARC on March 6th.  Let the madness begin!

SectionEE's Post Season Awards

Here are my winners for this year's EE awards.  Agree, disagree, debate them all you want.  These guys have earned their coveted award and I'm sure they will display them proudly on their imaginary mantle.

Coach of the Year: Bryce Drew, Valparaiso

I don't think this one can even be debated. 20+ wins, Horizon League Champs, a sweep of Butler and Cleveland State.  No other coach lost as much and had as many new faces to get acclimated as first year head coach Bryce Drew.  Many thought this team was a year away, but he has proved his coaching ability is right up there with others who have beared his last name.

Player of the Year: Ryan Broekhoff, Valparaiso

Again, is this one really even debatable?  4th in points per game, 1st in rebounding, 9th in 3pt %, 8th in steals, and the unquestioned leader of the best team in the conference.

1st Team All Conference
Ryan Broekhoff, Valparaiso - see above

Kendrick Perry, YSU - top scorer in the league for the most improved team in the conference.  Perry was also tied for 3rd in the league in assists per game and 2nd in steals.

Kevin Van Wijk, Valparaiso - top field goal percentage, 5th in points per game, not sure anybody draws as many fouls and gets to the line as often as KVW

Ray McCallum, Detroit - number 3 in both scoring and assists also 5th in steals.  Keeps his dad employeed.

Alec Brown, Green Bay - 7th in scoring, 2nd in blocks, 2nd in rebounding.  Brown is a tough assignment for nearly every opponent and patrols the paint as well as anybody.

2nd Teamers
Kaylon Williams, Milwaukee - 1st in assists, 4th in steals.  He was kept out of the first team due to all his turnovers (and I just don't care for him).

Ben Averkamp, Loyola - 2nd in scoring, 4th in rebounding, 8th in blocks..he is the best player on the worst team in the league.

Julius Mays, Wright State - 6th in scoring, 5th in steals, 7th in 3pt %, he is really the only big scoring threat on WSU but did manage to lead his team to a couple upset conference wins.

Ronald Nored, Butler - 2nd in assists, 3rd in steals, the heart and soul of the team with the biggest target on their back in the league this year.  He was also an Academic All American.  Nored is also one of the toughest players in the league after suffering that nasty injury to his mouth and returning to play later that game.

Trey Harmon, Cleveland State - felt like I needed to pick someone from CSU.  Harmon was top 10 in points, 3pt %, and steals.
 

Now what make the EE's special is the obscure categories we award. 

Nastiest Injury

Ronald Nored, Butler - In a home game he goes to the floor after a loose ball only to bang his face, bust a tooth and split his lip.  He would return to action later in the game.

Filthiest Dunk
Doug Anderson, Detroit - In a game at Valpo, Anderson would take a feed from McCallum and go up and over KVW earning himself the top play on ESPN that night. Want to see it again?

Nerdiest Coach

Billy Donlon, Wright State - this was a close category, but Coach Donlon wins the nerdy.  No other coach in the league has his lunch money taken from him as often as Donlon (I assume).  Runner up was Brad Stevens, but his 2 final fours pretty much took him out of the running for first place.

Game Wrap Up: Sending a Message

The Crusaders wrapped up their 2011-2012 regular season tonight with a 12 point victory over Butler.  The win completed the regular season sweep and extended Valpo's win streak to 3 in games against Butler.  The victory also gave Valpo a 13-2 home record this season.

KVW played out of his mind, scoring nearly every time he got the ball inside.  He would eventually foul out but not before scoring 18 points and grabbing 5 rebounds.  Will Bogan scored 14 and Ben Boggs chipped in 11, mostly at the line.  Ryan Broekhoff was kept quiet offensively scoring only 6 but he grabbed 9 rebounds and blocked 2 shots. 

The ARC was electric tonight, although slightly below capacity.  The students really showed up in force tonight and got quite loud on occassion drowning out the Butler faithful who came North for tonight's game.  As the game was winding down and Coach Drew had answered the chants for Shelton the only question was whether the students would rush the court or not.  Well, that question was answered with the Event Staff roping off the court.  After the trophy ceremony, the team rushed the student section!  Fantastic moment.

Now the waiting begins.  Tomorrow's games will wrap up the seeding.  Valpo will have 8 days to rest up and prepare.  Horizon League teams take notice, Valpo is 13-2 at home this year with losses coming at the end of games to Milwaukee and Oakland.  Whatever happens, next week is going to be a fun ride!

Player of the Game: Kevin VanWijk - 18 points 5 rebounds, proved he is 100% tonight

POTG Runner Up: Will Bogan - he has been shooting it well.  14 points 3-5 from behind the ARC

Up Next: Valpo will play the second semi final game next Saturday night in the HL tournament.

1 vs. 2 to end the season

The number 2 Horizon League team comes to Valpo in a rematch of the first game of the league season. Butler is riding high on a 5 game win streak while Valpo is trying to find some momentum before the conference tournament begins.

It will be interesting to see how Valpo reacts to 1) being the Horizon League target now that they have won the league and 2) how will they play knowing that they really have nothing to play for other than they need to show some improvement over a few lackluster games. Meanwhile Butler has something to play for as they are trying to lock up a bye and the #2 seed for the game.

The only key that matters in this game is for Valpo to get out of the game healthy and ready for the tournament. However, it would send a signal to the rest of the league if Valpo holds home court and sends a clear message that the Crusaders will not be beat at home.

It will be senior night for the Crusaders so look for Nick Shelton and Nathan Stegelmann to get honorary starts as the only seniors on the team. We certainly hope coach Drew can find some playing time in honor of their time and commitment to the team and university. We here at Section EE wish you both the best.

Good luck Crusaders! I cannot wait until we host our first tournament as HORIZON LEAGUE CHAMPS!

Why the HL Loves Valpo

Valparaiso is a beautiful small city in Northwest Indiana.  In another week this small city will host the Horizon League tournament semi finals (and possibly the finals).  Six teams, their coaches/players/cheerleaders/bands, their students, alumni, and media members will all ascend upon on our quiet town for at minimum a weekend of basketball mayhem.

The Horizon League has to be excited about the tourney coming to Valpo.  As Mark Lazerus reported last week the league will lose out on some ticket sales, practice space will be tricky, and the locker rooms in the ARC might not be ideal for basketball teams.  The ARC can fit only about half of what Butler and Milwaukee can seat in their home gyms.  The Wolstein Center in Cleveland holds three times what the ARC holds.  What Valpo lacks in numbers it makes up for in energy.  When the ARC is full the enthusiasm and electricity is like no other gym in the league.

The number of convienently located hotels and restraunts will make everyones' stay in Valpo a plesant one (even if your team doesn't win).  Heck, you could even take the 15 minute drive to Chesterton and get a haircut from Valpo fan Matthew Carter at Cuts and Shaves.  There has been some concern about parking, but with the students gone there should be a lot more open spaces, although you may have to huff it a few blocks.

I think one of the other reasons the HL bigwigs are excited to be coming to Valpo has been overlooked, safety.  Using this site I researched the crime rates of Valpo, Indy, Cleveland, and Milwaukee.  These other three citties are much larger then Valpo, but the numbers don't lie.  The crime indices range 1-10. A higher number corresponds with more crime. These crime rates are based on FBI data.

Valpo: Violent Crime: 5   Property Crime: 4
Indy: Violent Crime: 9   Property Crime: 8
Cleveland: Violent Crime: 9   Property Crime: 8
Milwaukee: Violent Crime: 9   Property Crime: 8

So, come to Valpo next weekend.  Enjoy the good eats at our local restraunts, peruse our local shops (stop by rTrail and see my wife's art exhibit in March), and spend your tourism dollars in our small quiet town.  Cheer on your teams and feel safe doing it.

Game Wrap Up: Feels good to be #1

It wasn't pretty, it wasn't efficient, but tonight with all the Drews in the house Valpo captured it's first ever Horizon League regular season crown in basketball.  It took five extra minutes, but the wait was worth it (although unnecessary since CSU lost). With tonight's win, Valpo will host the HL tournament, get a double bye (which they already had locked up) and can do no worse then an NIT postseason birth.

Valpo played catch up much of the night, thanks to Loyola taking advantage of our switching defense.  Averkamp would set the pick everytime to draw a switch by either Buggs or Bogan. He'd then simply post them up and score or find the open man when the double team arrived.  But, thanks to some timely 3pt shooting and some tough defense in the OT the Crusaders prevailed.

I don't want to get into specifics, it is late, but I do want to comment on Erik Buggs.  Buggs has been playing fantastic as of late.  He has been limiting his turnovers and staying out of foul trouble (yes, he fouled out late in OT).  His last three games he has dished out 14 assist to only 5 turnovers while playing 88 minutes.  Great job Erik!

We got our guy Danny down on the court for the post game celebration.  Here is what he captured.

Player of the Game: Ryan Broekhoff - another double double for your HLPOY, 17 points (on an off shooting night), 11 rebounds, 2 assists, team high 41 minutes

POTG Runner Up: Will Bogan - 16 points, started and finished off hot for Valpo, 2 assists

Locker room video!

Up Next: Valpo will close out the regular season hosting Butler on Senior Night at the ARC.  Get there early as the place is going to be packed!

Game Preview: Loyola

Tuesday is another "biggest game of the year" game against Loyola.  Last year, in similar circumstances, Loyola came into the ARC and wiped the floor with the Crusaders in a 20 point drubbing.  Will things be different this time around?

Loyola has been the league bottom dweller all year, winning only one game against UIC.  The Ramblers have struggled this year, but do have a couple of bright spots on their roster.  Walt Gibler has had an outstanding year, but will probably not play due to a shoulder injury.  Ben Averkamp has also been playing well all year averaging 14.5ppg. Local product Joe Crisman averages nearly 9 a game, and Jordan Hicks (who led the scoring attack against Valpo last time) is scoring 8 a game.  As a team the Ramblers only average 55.6 ppg.  They played at Butler last Tuesday and kept the game close before falling by 6. 

The big question for Valpo is the health of KVW's knee.  He stayed home from the bracket buster trip to get some extra treatment and I think he his ready to go all out.  With or without a 100% healthy KVW there is no reason/excuse for Valpo to lose this game.  The Crusadesr have too many weapons offensively to be held down by an undermanned Loyola team.  Lets get to the predictions.

Looking at team wide PPS:
Valpo: 0.501115
Loyola: 0.360398

Using the PPS Valpo is clearly the more productive team.  Valpo should win this game by at least 14 points.  I'll go a little over that with my official prediction and say Valpo wins the game and the Horizon League regular season title, 66-50.

Game Preview: Bracket Buster

Friday night the Crusaders will be visiting Los Angelos in a Bracket  Buster matchup against Loyola Marymount.  Valpo left star forward Kevin VanWijk at home to rest and rehad his knee in an effort to get him back to full strength for next week's big conference games.  The Lions have knocked off two top 25 teams this year in UCLA and Saint Louis, both back in November.  They are 17-10 overall and 10-4 in the West Coast Conference.

Looking at their seasons stats, they are barely a .500 team at home at 8-7.  They have four players averaging double figures led by Drew Viney (16.3) and Anthony Ireland (15.4).  They have been outrebounded on the year by their opponents and turn the ball over more then they dish out assists.

It doesn't really matter to me whether Valpo wins or losses this game.  As long as they get out healthy and don't throw up a stinker I'll be satisfied.  With that said, even without KVW I think Valpo can make this a good game.  Erik Buggs will need to have a stellar outing defending Ireland and the Valpo double team will be the key to slowing down Viney. 

Prediction: I think Valpo will be looking ahead to the games coming up on Tuesday and Friday this next week.  I hope the guys have a nice relaxing time in LA and play well enough to not lose the rythm they found in the second half against UIC.  I think this will be a high scoring game with both teams averaging just over 70 points per game.  With KVW sidelined and Valpo's depth at the big positions limited I'll give the advantage to Loyola, 72-63.  Hopefully the guys won't be too distracted by th LMU swim team.

We will have a special post from someone from Valpo who has flown out to LA to take in the game.  Look for that Saturday night!

Some factoids about LMU....famous alumni include Carson Daly, Colin Hanks, and numerous other actors and actresses.

Game Wrap Up: One more to go

With the win over UIC Tuesday night, the Crusaders have earned themselves at least the 2 seed and one of the coveted double byes for the Horizon League tournament.  It was a tale of two halves, as Valpo struggled to find any kind of rythm in the first and couldn't miss in the second.  Richie Edwards and Matt Kenney both had real nice games leading the scoring effort coming off the bench while KVW posted an 11 point effort in his first game back from injury.  My two favorite plays both occurred near the end of the game.  1 - when we called timeout and everyone in the gym knew Valpo going with the HR ball to Kenney and he finished it off with a layup, and 2 - when Matt stuffed the UIC players three pointer right into the floor.

Here are the PPS numbers from the game.  I ran the guys that played major minutes for Valpo plus the team score and ran only the team score for UIC.

UIC: 0.43

Valpo: 0.57
Broekhoff: 0.54839
KVW:  0.27273
Buggs: 0.14286
Bogan: 0.41379
Edwards: 1.38889
Boggs: 0.2381
Harris: 0.3913
Kenney: 1.25

Player of the Game: Richie Edwards - 19 points in 18 minutes.  This guy's improvement is the reason this team is contending like they are.

POTG Honorable Mention: Matt Kenney - 14 points, nearly perfect shooting night, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks

Up Next: Valpo will travel across the country to compete in the Bracket Buster against Loyola Marymount.  We will a special guest blogger who will be at the game making a post that I'm really looking forward too.

The Road Ahead

This weekends game has created quite a cluster a top the Horizon League standings.  There are 6 teams that could finish their year with at least 12 wins.  Following, we'll take a look at each of those 6 teams remaining conference games and take a crack at predicting who will come out where.  I have no idea who holds tie breakers over who (except Valpo over CSU) but you can go to horizonleague.blogspot.com and Jim Squire will have that information for you.  Teams are listed in how they currently sit in the league standings.  We'll list team: vs./at opponent (win/loss), final conference record, and then a thought or two about the schedule.

Valparaiso: vs. UIC (win), vs. Loyola (win), vs. Butler (win) 14-4
- Valpo has probably the easiest remaining schedule for the league leaders.  Hosting their final three games including the two bottom dwelling Chicago teams and then rival game against Butler on Senior night. A loss to Butler is possible but with 13 wins Valpo should be hosting the tournament.

Cleveland State: at Milwaukee (loss), at Green Bay (win), vs. Detroit (loss), vs. Wright State (win) 12-6
- While Valpo has the easiest route, I think CSU may have the toughest.  Milwaukee is no slouch and GB can be tough at home (especially if Brown is still out for CSU).  Their final two games are at home which I think they split.

Youngstown State: at Green Bay (win), vs. Wright State (win), vs. Detroit (win) 12-6
-  YSU gets to host 2 of their final 3 games.  YSU is a team nobody really wants to play, especially with how Kendrick Perry has been playing lately.  I think they run the table in these final three games and finish at 12-6.

Butler: vs. Loyola (win), vs. UIC (win), at Valpo (loss) 11-7
- Butler has the same schedule as Valpo with the exception that they go on the road to end the season. The two home games are gimmies for Butler while the road game at Valpo could probably go either way. Butler, again, is playing some of their best ball at the right time of the year.

Milwaukee: at Wright State (win)vs. Cleveland State (win), at UIC (win), at Loyola (win) 12-6

- I think Milwaukee wins out their final four games with the toughest matchup being that home game vs. CSU (who should still be without Brown). 

Detroit: vs. Green  Bay (win), at Wright State (win), at Cleveland State (win), at Youngstown State (loss) 11-7

- The results of the last two games could flip flop, but I do think that Detroit is talented enough and is playing well at the right time of the year.  They will win 3/4 and finish with a decent (but still underachieving) 11 wins. 

I suppose this doesn't clear up much, trying to predict how this league will wind up is anyone's guess. These last two weeks are sure to be exciting/frustrating.

A PPS Preview: YSU vs. Valpo

I don't have the time today to look at each team's roster, so instead lets just take a quick look at the season PPS for the teams as a whole along with a couple key statistical categories.

Valparaiso: .512344        Youngstown State: .458556

So, like the preview of CSU, Valpo again holds a small advantage in productivity.  Looking at some stats, Valpo players have played quite a few more minutes, turned the ball over a whole lot more, and have made a lot more FG and FT.  The biggest factor for YSU's low score is their shooting percentage.  They have missed 776 FG attempts, compared to 689 for Valpo.  The Penguins also don't shoot a lot of free throws.

Going just by the PPS I'd say Valpo should win the game by 6 or 7.  However, with the unknown status of KVW and Ben Boggs things could be much different.  With the way Richie Edwards and Ryan Broekhoff  have been playing I'll go ahead and stick with the 6 or 7 point advantage.

Prediction: 73-67 Valpo wins and takes advantage of an earlier Butler victory over Cleveland State to stake themselves to essentially a two game lead over CSU.

Valpo vs. Cleveland State PPS results

Below are the PPS results from Thursday's game against CSU.  I only took the guys who played major minutes so you will not see KVW nor Brown from CSU.  The scores are pretty low which is indicative of a defensive struggle.  Both teams as a whole scored out as a unit below their season averages as well.  I'll get a PPS preview for tomorrow's game up later this afternoon.

Crusaders: 0.43
Broekhoff: 1.1212
Edwards: 0.8214
Buggs: 0.5333
Boggs: 0.2
Kenney: 0.1481
Harris: 0.0385
Bogan: 0.0345

Vikings: 0.245
Montgomery: 0.4211
Kamczyc: 0.3947
Grady: 0.3571
Mason: 0.3333
Harmon: 0.1
Pogue: 0.0625
Lee: -0.1667

Crusaders Conquer Vikings

This game was over early as Valpo jumped to an early 17-4 lead and Cleveland State did not manage to get any closer than 12 the rest of the way. Valpo is now in sole possession of the conference lead and they hold the tie breaker over the Vikings by virtue of the season sweep. This also marks the first time that Valpo has ever swept the Vikings in Horizon League play. The biggest story of the night however, is the injury to Kevin Van Wijk in the 1st half that is being reported as a minor knee sprain. He was able to put a little weight on the leg at the end of the game to join a huddle which is a good sign.

If anyone still has doubts that Ryan Broekhoff is the favorite to win Horizon League MVP they need only look at tonight's performance and the way he put the team on his back. Just check this stat line: 24 points, 10 rbs, and 6-9 behind the arc. He had 11 points in the first 5 minutes of the game when Cleveland State only managed 4. Richie Edwards was a nice complement tonight scoring 20, 6 rbs, and shooting 4-7 behind the arc. Valpo did commit 16 TO's to Cleveland State's 10 which would have been a death blow had Valpo's D not been so good.

For the Vikings Jeremy Montgomery scored 15 and had 6 rbs on 5-17 shooting. Most of his points came after the outcome was decided. Cleveland State just looked out of sorts all night. It appeared to be a mix of poor shooting on their part as they missed a lot of easy put ins at the basket and also the Valpo D did a nice job making the Vikings shoot bad shots. They shot 25% from the field to Valpo's 42% which is the stat of the game. This is going to be a team we will see again come league tournament time and to beat them for a 3rd time will be a tall order as this team is much better than they played on this night.

Hrvoje Vucic had better be ready to step up if Van Wijk has to miss anytime. The prognoses post game is that they do not believe he did any damage to his ACL, but they are going to evaluate him. Good thing Richie Edwards is hitting his three's because that will allow us to spread the floor out so the guards can penetrate the lane.

Dinks and Dunks... Rowdy had a nice jam in the closing minutes of the game... Valpo seemed to relax at the end of both halves which allowed CSU to make a run, however Coach Drew seemed to learn from his first half mistake and put the Crusaders back on the attack at the 5 minute mark in the second half... This is CSU's lowest game total since March 2, 2004 when they scored 36 against Detroit.

Next up is Youngstown State on Saturday at 7 pm EST.

A PPS Statistical Preview for Thursday

This is as unbiased as it gets here.  I've used my PPS formula on the major players for both teams in this Thursday's game and also calculated both teams' PPS (Player Productivity Score) for the whole season.  Here are the results.

Valparaiso                              Cleveland State
VanWijk     0.85370                        Grady            0.73134
Broekhoff  0.83146                        Brown           0.59184
Edwards    0.60597                        Kamczyc        0.50212
Harris        0.51000                        Harmon         0.46647
Kenney      0.44134                        Montgomery 0.42922
Bogan        0.30781                        Pogue           0.40123
Boggs        0.23373                        Lee                0.22955
Buggs        0.23214

Valpo Team 0.51562                      Cleveland State Team  0.46458


Here is what I see based on the statistics.  Valpo is the more efficient team as a whole.  VU plays more guys on a regular basis.  However, three of Valpo's starters are scoring out at less then 0.31.  Based on these numbers Valpo should win a close one, however, I wonder what effect the fact of the low scores for Valpo starters will play. 

Obviously the major key to a Valpo Victory will be how they handle the full court pressure from the Vikings.  If Valpo can keep their turnovers at or under 15 hereby limiting the number of extra shot attempts for CSU they should have a real chance of pulling this one off. 

Prediction: I think the fact that Brown is injured and will probably be limited at best is greatly beneficial for Valpo.  If Valpo keeps those turnovers under 15 and gets the averages from KVW and Rowdy they win.  I can't pick against Valpo in the biggest game of the year.  Valpo wins a dousy 76-74.