Game Wrap Up: One more to go

With the win over UIC Tuesday night, the Crusaders have earned themselves at least the 2 seed and one of the coveted double byes for the Horizon League tournament.  It was a tale of two halves, as Valpo struggled to find any kind of rythm in the first and couldn't miss in the second.  Richie Edwards and Matt Kenney both had real nice games leading the scoring effort coming off the bench while KVW posted an 11 point effort in his first game back from injury.  My two favorite plays both occurred near the end of the game.  1 - when we called timeout and everyone in the gym knew Valpo going with the HR ball to Kenney and he finished it off with a layup, and 2 - when Matt stuffed the UIC players three pointer right into the floor.

Here are the PPS numbers from the game.  I ran the guys that played major minutes for Valpo plus the team score and ran only the team score for UIC.

UIC: 0.43

Valpo: 0.57
Broekhoff: 0.54839
KVW:  0.27273
Buggs: 0.14286
Bogan: 0.41379
Edwards: 1.38889
Boggs: 0.2381
Harris: 0.3913
Kenney: 1.25

Player of the Game: Richie Edwards - 19 points in 18 minutes.  This guy's improvement is the reason this team is contending like they are.

POTG Honorable Mention: Matt Kenney - 14 points, nearly perfect shooting night, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks

Up Next: Valpo will travel across the country to compete in the Bracket Buster against Loyola Marymount.  We will a special guest blogger who will be at the game making a post that I'm really looking forward too.

The Road Ahead

This weekends game has created quite a cluster a top the Horizon League standings.  There are 6 teams that could finish their year with at least 12 wins.  Following, we'll take a look at each of those 6 teams remaining conference games and take a crack at predicting who will come out where.  I have no idea who holds tie breakers over who (except Valpo over CSU) but you can go to horizonleague.blogspot.com and Jim Squire will have that information for you.  Teams are listed in how they currently sit in the league standings.  We'll list team: vs./at opponent (win/loss), final conference record, and then a thought or two about the schedule.

Valparaiso: vs. UIC (win), vs. Loyola (win), vs. Butler (win) 14-4
- Valpo has probably the easiest remaining schedule for the league leaders.  Hosting their final three games including the two bottom dwelling Chicago teams and then rival game against Butler on Senior night. A loss to Butler is possible but with 13 wins Valpo should be hosting the tournament.

Cleveland State: at Milwaukee (loss), at Green Bay (win), vs. Detroit (loss), vs. Wright State (win) 12-6
- While Valpo has the easiest route, I think CSU may have the toughest.  Milwaukee is no slouch and GB can be tough at home (especially if Brown is still out for CSU).  Their final two games are at home which I think they split.

Youngstown State: at Green Bay (win), vs. Wright State (win), vs. Detroit (win) 12-6
-  YSU gets to host 2 of their final 3 games.  YSU is a team nobody really wants to play, especially with how Kendrick Perry has been playing lately.  I think they run the table in these final three games and finish at 12-6.

Butler: vs. Loyola (win), vs. UIC (win), at Valpo (loss) 11-7
- Butler has the same schedule as Valpo with the exception that they go on the road to end the season. The two home games are gimmies for Butler while the road game at Valpo could probably go either way. Butler, again, is playing some of their best ball at the right time of the year.

Milwaukee: at Wright State (win)vs. Cleveland State (win), at UIC (win), at Loyola (win) 12-6

- I think Milwaukee wins out their final four games with the toughest matchup being that home game vs. CSU (who should still be without Brown). 

Detroit: vs. Green  Bay (win), at Wright State (win), at Cleveland State (win), at Youngstown State (loss) 11-7

- The results of the last two games could flip flop, but I do think that Detroit is talented enough and is playing well at the right time of the year.  They will win 3/4 and finish with a decent (but still underachieving) 11 wins. 

I suppose this doesn't clear up much, trying to predict how this league will wind up is anyone's guess. These last two weeks are sure to be exciting/frustrating.

A PPS Preview: YSU vs. Valpo

I don't have the time today to look at each team's roster, so instead lets just take a quick look at the season PPS for the teams as a whole along with a couple key statistical categories.

Valparaiso: .512344        Youngstown State: .458556

So, like the preview of CSU, Valpo again holds a small advantage in productivity.  Looking at some stats, Valpo players have played quite a few more minutes, turned the ball over a whole lot more, and have made a lot more FG and FT.  The biggest factor for YSU's low score is their shooting percentage.  They have missed 776 FG attempts, compared to 689 for Valpo.  The Penguins also don't shoot a lot of free throws.

Going just by the PPS I'd say Valpo should win the game by 6 or 7.  However, with the unknown status of KVW and Ben Boggs things could be much different.  With the way Richie Edwards and Ryan Broekhoff  have been playing I'll go ahead and stick with the 6 or 7 point advantage.

Prediction: 73-67 Valpo wins and takes advantage of an earlier Butler victory over Cleveland State to stake themselves to essentially a two game lead over CSU.

Valpo vs. Cleveland State PPS results

Below are the PPS results from Thursday's game against CSU.  I only took the guys who played major minutes so you will not see KVW nor Brown from CSU.  The scores are pretty low which is indicative of a defensive struggle.  Both teams as a whole scored out as a unit below their season averages as well.  I'll get a PPS preview for tomorrow's game up later this afternoon.

Crusaders: 0.43
Broekhoff: 1.1212
Edwards: 0.8214
Buggs: 0.5333
Boggs: 0.2
Kenney: 0.1481
Harris: 0.0385
Bogan: 0.0345

Vikings: 0.245
Montgomery: 0.4211
Kamczyc: 0.3947
Grady: 0.3571
Mason: 0.3333
Harmon: 0.1
Pogue: 0.0625
Lee: -0.1667