Predicting the 2011-2012 Season, Part 1

The 2011-2012 basketball schedule is finally here! A quick glance at the schedule and several games immediately jumped out at me. The November 7th game at Arizona (perhaps a happy birthday upset for me), the tournament Valpo gets to host the weekend of November 18, both Bowling Green and Oakland coming to town, and the home finale against arch rival Butler (get your tickets early). This schedule has me even more excited then I already was for the upcoming season. Brent and myself are going to go game by game with some wild and wacky predictions. Enjoy part 1 of our 2 part breakdown!

Saturday, October 29 vs. Hillsdale#
HC: Hillsdale comes to town for the preseason opener. I imagine we will get a glimpse at what Coach Drew hopes will be the starting lineup. Expect everybody to get in on the action to allow the coaching staff a better look at what they have to work with. Valpo wins this preseason matchup 98-52.

BG: Every college program likes to try and start the year out with a couple of gimmes and Valpo is no exception. I expect Valpo to have some serious sloppy play to begin the season, but Hillsdale is just what the doctor ordered. They will have an opportunity to play under Coach Drew's new system and make some tweaks in an actual game situation. Valpo wins 88-60.

Thursday, November 3 vs. Augustana#
BG: Preseason game #2 provides more opportunity to play with the lineup and tweak the offense. Again, this should not be a problem. Valpo wins 86-57.


HC: The preseason finale will feature Augustana. We should get a better idea of what the rotation might look like and who the starting lineup will feature for the season opener. Ultimately, everyone sees action once again and Valpo cruises to a 101-59 victory.

Monday, November 7 at Arizona
HC: Valpo will open it's season at Arizona as part of the 2K Sports Classic tournament. Arizona returns 3 starters from last years team that finished 30-8. Valpo will need some hot shooting and stellar inside play to stick around in this one. Arizona pulls away in the second half and wins this one going away against a Valpo team still learning to play together, 77-60.


BG: The fact of the matter is Valpo never plays well against big time schools during the nonconference schedule. This year will be no exception and though Arizona will have very little scouting for our new offense their athleticism will absolutely overwhelm us. I think we'll put in 1 really good half of play, but the other half will see the bottom fall out. The only question, which half will be which? Unfortunately, Valpo is going to drop the season opener, but unlike Hank, I believe it'll be a little closer because Arizona isn't exactly known for stellar defense, 70-82.




Friday, November 11 at Georgia Southern
BG: Georgia Southern was an extremely young team last year and they showed it by finishing last in the Southern Conference. They will undoubtedly be playing with a chip on their shoulders, but Valpo is much more seasoned and will be playing with a bit of fire after the Arizona game. Coach Drew gets his first regular season victory, 82-71.


HC: Georgia Southern returns four starters and another four players who averaged better then 17 minutes per game last year. They are a relatively young team, only two seniors, and height wise should be a good matchup for Valpo. GS did not have a very good year last season being outscored by 10 points per game and finishing with a 5-27 mark last year. I think Valpo goes on the road and picks up their first victory of the year 73-67.

Monday, November 14 vs. Holy Cross (Ind.)
HC: Holy Cross comes to the ARC for the first home game of the year. Their roster only list 10 players and not a lot of height. The Crusaders will not make the Saints short bus ride home a pleasent one. Valpo rolls, everyone plays and scores, and the results are a home opening victory, 82-58.

BG: Just like the preseason every team likes to open their season with some gimme's and they especially want to do that for a home opener to help excite the fan base for the season. Holy Cross is going to be over matched and out played all night long. Valpo cruises, 79-51.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday, November 18/19/20 Opponents TBA @ ARC
More on this when it is announced!



Friday, November 25 at Ohio State
BG: Ohio State will be a top 10 team when the season opens lead by last year's stellar frosh Jared Sullinger. OSU did lose two top players in Lighty and Diebler to graduation, but Matta is bringing in one of the top recruiting classes this year. As is always the case Valpo will be exposed by the athleticism of OSU and this will be a long night. Valpo loses, 52-87.

HC: Another tough test on the road against a highly ranked opponent. This one could get ugly as I don't Valpo's bigs can compete with the likes of possible Big 10 player of the year Jared Sullinger. This will be a good warmup in a tough environment before the Crusaders head to Butler. OSU takes this one 83-60.

Saturday, December 3 at Butler*
HC: The Crusaders took down Butler last season in one of the most exciting home games I have witnessed at the ARC. Last season at Butler, the Crusaders struggled shooting the ball early and dug themselves into a deep hole. Had this game been after the new year I would take Valpo, but I'm going with Butler to take this one is a nailbiter, 73-70.

BG: Valpo finally got over the hump against Butler at home last year however, Butler got over its mid season slump on the way to another improbable national title game run. Butler's team has been absolutely gutted with Howard and Vanzant graduating and Mack gone to the NBA. A solid freshman class is going to need to fill in the holes, but I don't think they'll have it together this early in the season. Valpo takes the next step and beats Butler at home but not before these two teams play their usual close game, 71-68.

Wednesday, December 7 at IPFW
BG: IPFW has lost 2 starters from last year due to graduation, but this is a solid team and no longer a gimme as in the past. IPFW doesn't exactly play a difficult schedule and the Summit League isn't a talented league as a whole. Valpo should continue the the winning streak, but they should not look over the Mastodons, 72-66.

HC: This is Valpo's third straight road game, but this one will end in Valpo's favor. Valpo took down IPFW by double digits at home last year, but on the flip side IPFW was undefeated at home in out of conference games. The Crusaders end their road woes and win this one 68-61.

Saturday, December 10 vs. Bowling Green
HC: This could be a good one. The Falcons come to Valpo in what will be their 3rd game in 7 days. I think they will have tired legs this early in the year and Valpo will use their deep bench and wear down BGSU. Valpo wins going away, 76-62.

BG:Bowling Green will be looking to come of age this year and is returning all their starters. They went 0-2 against Detroit and UWM last year. They have a history of not playing well during the nonconference schedule. I believe Valpo will come away with this one, 78-70.

Saturday, December 17 vs. Oakland
BG: Oakland lost 3 of their 6 man rotation from last year including Keith Benson who was their best player. The problem with a dominant 6 man rotation is that nobody else really has a chance to develop. They are going to struggle finding help off the bench and by the end of the game I believe Valpo will have worn them out. Valpo wins a close and exciting game, 72-70.

HC: A game most Valpo fans have circled on their pocket schedules. The Golden Grizzlies come in a bit shorthanded from last season having lost some of their better talent. They are a tall team, although most of their height is young guys. I think this could be an exciting game but think Valpo will win by a bit more then Brent, 77-69 with Valpo hitting some freethrows late.

Tuesday, December 20 at Northern Illinois
HC: It appears the Huskies will return only 5 players from last years squad. This will also be their 3rd game in 7 days. Once again, I expect Valpo to get out in transition and use their depth to wear out NIU. Valpo takes another one on the road 75-61.

BG: NIU appears as though they will not be very good this year and their cause isn't helped by the fact that they lost the only double digit scorer from their team last year in Xavier Silas. This should be and easy W for Valpo, 88-60.

Friday, December 23 at IUPUI
BG: IUPUI is a terrific team in the backcourt and will definitely present a matchup problem. However, their frontcourt is extremely weak and they will not be able to get valuable second chance shots because their rebounding is atrocious. Valpo might be well served to feed the big guys a Christmas feast on this night. Valpo wins, 66-58.

HC: IUPUI is led by senior Alex Young. If the Crusaders can contain Young they will win this game. This is a good team that has some depth and some size. This would be a nice road win for the Crusaders and I'm going to pick them to stay on a hot streak and win this one close, 69-67.

Thursday, December 29 vs. Milwaukee*
HC: Now the fun really begins. Reigning Horizon League champion Milwaukee comes to the ARC bringing back a pretty solid team. Several JUCO transfers and Tony Meirer (and Kaylen Williams?) will mean this team will be no pushover. But, this is a Valpo home game and last year Valpo was real good at home. I see this as the game Valpo starts to really click as a team. They will win this game 74-68.

BG: Milwaukee is bringing in some good JUCO recruits, but it just won't be enough as both teams suffer some post Christmas hangover. It might be an ugly affair, but I give the edge to a deeper Valpo team, 60-55.

Saturday, December 31 vs. Green Bay*
BG: If you've read my Horizon league predictions then you know I'm higher on Green Bay than Hank (if you haven't read it yet what are you waiting for?!). I think Valpo will suffer without having the energy of a lively student section during break. Brown will be a tough matchup, but I believe Valpo squeaks by on this one, 69-65.

HC: The last day of 2011 will bring in another tough Horizon League opponent. The Phoenix of Green Bay will be a tall task to take down for the Crusaders. Last season Green Bay took down Valpo on both occassions by a combined total of 3 points. Alec Brown is a skilled big man and is a SectionEE player to watch this year for a reason, I suspect he will wreak all kinds of havoc in the paint on both ends of the court. With that said, this is a VU home game and I think Valpo pulls this one out in another close affair, 77-74.