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Sunday, February 26, 2012

Predicting the HL tournament: PPS

I ran my PPS for each Horizon League team.  I will show you the results then try to predict the first two rounds of the tournament using the PPS.  Since, the semis require several teams to play on back to back nights I don't think I can put as much weight on PPS as a predictor.  Originally I wanted to just look at the stats from conference play, but that proved to be more work than I was interested in doing at this time.  So the following numbers are based on each team's entire season. I will list the team (where they finished in the league) and then their PPS.

1) Detroit (3)         0.527
2) Valpo (1)           0.500
3) YSU (6)              0.462
4) CSU  (2)             0.457
5) Green Bay (7)   0.449
6) Milwaukee (4)   0.428
7) Butler  (5)         0.416
8) UIC  (9)              0.378
9) Loyola (10)        0.369
10) WSU  (8)          0.342

Ok, lets give this a try. 
Round 1
Detroit vs. Loyola        Detroit wins by 16
YSU vs. Green Bay       YSU wins by 2
Milwaukee vs. UIC       Milwaukee wins by 5
Butler vs. WSU             Butler wins by 7

Round 2
Detroit vs. YSU            Detroit wins by 6
Butler vs. Milwaukee  Milwaukee wins by 1

So, I predict that the semis will feature Cleveland State vs. Detroit and Valpo vs. Milwaukee.  Like I said above, I don't think PPS can be used much since Detroit and Milwaukee will have had to play in back to back nights.  I like Valpo and Cleveland State to hold serve and face off in a heavyweight title match at the ARC on March 6th.  Let the madness begin!

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