Valpo vs. Loyola and CSU

If you'd like an updated look at how the entire roster is performing based on our PPS formula head here, http://cbbpps.wordpress.com/valpo-pps-12-13/

Heading back to work after a long break isn’t easy for anyone, especially for middle school math teachers and mid major college basketball players. After a long layoff Valpo came out and was out played and out coached from opening tip to the ending buzzer in their horizon League opener at home against Loyola. It was hard to watch and even harder to motivate myself to calculate the PPS scores. Here they are with a brief breakdown to follow:

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
Loyola	LOY	200	0.81	0.29	0.52
Valparaiso	Valpo	200	0.69	0.34	0.35

Valpo’s – score really wasn’t that bad.  However, they didn’t take advantage of their possessions and Loyola did not make many mistakes when it was their turn with the ball.  Luckily it was a short one day off and Valpo got back to their winning ways with a blowout of Horizon League foe Cleveland State.  Valpo was able to turn the tables from their previous game.

		Minutes	+	-	PPS
CSU	CSU	200	0.64	0.37	0.27
Valparaiso	Valpo	200	0.90	0.38	0.52

As you can see Valpo’s – score was actually worse this game when compared to the debacle that was the Loyola game.  The Crusaders had more turnovers and more missed free throws vs. CSU.  Unlike the Loyola game Valpo was able to force the Vikings into a lower + score by out rebounding them by 16, forcing them to shoot only 30%, and allowing only 6 assists.  Meanwhile, the Crusaders put up a nice + score due again to their rebounding numbers.

Valpo will now head on a 3 game road trip squaring off against surprising UIC, a down Milwaukee team, and arch rival Detroit.

A pivotal weekend ahead

This weekend Valpo will welcome in HL coleaders Youngstown State and Cleveland State Universities to the ARC.  YSU has been the surprise of the conference so far and Valpo will have to play a very solid game to come out on top Friday evening.  The Penguins have recieved solid productivity from Eargle and Ward (currently ranked 3rd and 9th in PPS).  Perry and Allen are in the top 5 in assist while Eargle is the top block man in the league.

CSU has not skipped a beat despite losing conference player of the year Norris Cole to the Miami Heat.  While statistically they don't have anyone at the top of any major categories, they have some nice players in Montgomery, Brown and Kamczyc. Those guys share the scoring load pretty evenly. Montgomery does rank in the top 5 of the league in turnovers.

For Valpo to win either of these games they need to decide who is going to be the third scoring option.  If it is going to be Bogan they need to get him more shots (1 in the last game after he hit 8/9 in the game before that).  If it is going to be Kenney then they need him to provide that punch off the bench. I think it is also imparative that Valpo gets more shots for Ryan.  Whether it is him driving to the basket, posting up, or coming off screens for three pointers our best player needs more attempts!  The team also needs to be better on the defensive end and play without fouling.  Erik has done an excellent job of late of staying out of foul trouble.  I do not think these are must win games.  It is important to protect home court, but I do believe that 4, 5 or maybe even 6 losses will be challenging for those coveted top two spots for the league tournament.

Predictions
Friday night: Valpo wins 75-70 over YSU

Sunday afternoon:  Valpo wins in OT 86-83 over CSU

SectionEE's Horizon League Picks

SectionEE writers Hank and Brent along with the voice of the Crusaders Dick Harlan make their predictions for how the Horizon League's ten teams will finish up the season. As with any predictions, we will probably be able to look back at these and laugh at the end of the year. We will give it our best shot and try to give a short explanation for why we picked them the way we did.  Big thanks to Dick for taking some time and helping us out!  Leave your picks or make fun of ours in the comment section.

my bookie after another poor pick by me

Hank's Picks
10) UIC - They lose their top two players in Robo Kreps and Paul Carter. It is going to be hard to improve having to replace your top guys.


9) Youngstown St. - They will manage to finish just ahead of UIC. They were just to far below the next tier of teams and I don't think we will see that much improvement. This team did not win a road game last season (but they did beat Butler at YSU, go figure).

8) Loyola - Too many good teams in this league to put Loyola higher up. They haven't been good the past few seasons and this year is not going to be much different.

7) Green Bay - I think Alec Brown is going to be tough to stop. He had a very good freshman campaign and I think he will improve this season. He needs more help.

6) Wright State -Losing Tabler, Evans, and Duggins will force someone to step up the scoring for WSU. I don't think they will be able to stay in the top half of the league.

5) Milwaukee - Last year's champs have some holes to fill with the losses of Anthony Hill and Tone Boyle. They will still finish in the top half the league.

4) Valparaiso - A lot of new faces on this year's roster. I think Valpo is one year away from doing something real special.

3) Cleveland State - Still a very good team despite the loss of Player of the Year Norris Cole. Teams in slots 3, 4, and 5 could have gone anyway in my opinion.

2) Butler - Losing Howard and Mack will be too much for Butler to overcome in the regular season. Marshall will emerge as the next great Butler player.

1) Detroit - I think they will win the league this year in spite of their coach. Too much talent with McCallum, Holman, Minnerath, and Simon. This talent along with not losing anybody puts Detroit on top of my list.

Brent is the guy on the left

Brent's Picks
As with any new year after so many seniors and team leaders are gone the league is really going to come down to who steps up.

10) UIC: After only winning 2 league games and finishing last, things can only get better right? Sadly they'll be battling YSU and WSU for the bottom of the barrel this year.

9) Wright State: Losing your top four scorers is really going to hurt. I think Wright State is going into a rebuilding mode this year, but Darling, Pest, Pacher, and company should pose problems for the rest of the league starting in 2012-13.

8) Youngstown State: They have never finished above .500 since joining the league in 2001-02, I don't see them making any leaps or bounds on that trend.

7) Loyola: Averkamp, Hicks, and Gibler are going to need to step it up, but Hicks has injury concerns and they're going to need him.

6) Milwaukee: Two big subtractions who were the heart of the team is going leave this team in the bottom half of the league and certainly a repeat of their regular season title last year will not be repeated.

5) Valparaiso: This could be a surprise year for the Crusaders, but I suspect they are going to need a year to reorganize after the departures of Wood and Johnson and the implementation of a new system under new coach Bryce Drew.

4) Green Bay: I think they are really building something here, and will play this year without fear and be a tough play night in and night out for the entire league.

3) Cleveland State: Who's going to step up and take Norris Cole's spot? If that question can be answered then there is no reason this team can't win the league.

2) Detroit: The talent is certainly there for them to run away with this league, but could somebody please play defense?!

1) Butler: Another solid freshman class coming into the mix with the experience of two consecutive National Title games means that until someone (Ahem Detroit) knocks them off their perch they are the kings of the Horizon League.

Dick racking his brain.

Dick Harlan's Picks

10) UIC: Just don't have enough and what they did have left. Will be a long year.

9) Loyola: New coach, not enough talent. Bad idea.

8) Wright State: Lost too much. I look for them to slide down the standings, even though I think their coach is a very good one.
 
7) Youngstown State: Last year's most improved team from start to finish. They seem on the way up and could be a factor.

6) Milwaukee: Last year was an apperation. They weren't that good and won't be this time either. They always give upper echelon teams trouble in conference, but just don't have enough guns in my opinion.

5) Cleveland State: They will still play that in your face physical defense, but without Norris Cole, not sure how much their offense will help.

4) Green Bay: Very physical again. They have a 7-footer who can dominate for short periods. If they get any offense at all they will be force to reckon with.

3) Valparaiso: The Crusaders has the most depth in the conference and if Van Wijk can play, and they get any help up front they should be a force.

2) Detroit: Their talent has to overcome their coaching, but they are loaded. By far the most talented team in the conference. Maybe this year it will show.

1) Butler: They're still Butler and until someone shows me differently they are the team to beat. Marshall will be a stud and they still have Nored and the big kid.

A brief interview with CSU Assistant Coach Larry DeSimpelare

Cleveland State Assistant Coach Larry DeSimpelare was kind of enough to take a few minutes of his time to answer a couple of my questions regarding his CSU Vikings as well as our Valparaiso Crusaders.  Coach DeSimpelare has been coaching at the collegiate level for 20 years and has been working with current CSU head coach Gary Waters for the past 14 years.  According to DeSimpelare's bio he works hard with the guards, defense, is responsible for helping with game preparation, and is the primary person in charge of scouting and recruiting.  Again, a big thank you to Coach DeSimpelare for taking a few minutes to briefly answer my questions!

Aaron Pogue

The first thing DeSimpelare mentioned, before answering any of the questions, was about the great respect he has for Coach Drew, his staff, and the Crusader team.  The first question I asked had to do with CSU losing the Horizon League Player of the Year in Norris Cole to graduation and which returning players would be expected to fill the void.  DeSimpelare mentioned three guys: Aaron Pogue, D'Aundray Brown, and Trey Harmon.  All three of these guys are upperclassmen.  Brown and Harmon are both guards and Pogue is a forward.  Brown, who is listed as a senior, must have taken a medical redshirt last season.  Harmon and Pogue both played significant roles for the Vikings last season averaging a combined 21ppg and 10rpg. 

The next few questions didn't reveal a whole lot.  Those questions dealt with where he focuses his recruiting efforts and whether he thought CSU would be competing for the top spots in the HL next season.  I also asked him if CSU has any incoming freshmen the rest of the league should be worried about and got a pretty funny response:  "Hopefully.  Freshman only look good on paper." 

"Great offensive team"

Finally we got to the couple questions about our Crusaders.  As we all know, Valpo lost quite a bit of fire power in the graduations of Cory Johnson, Howard Little, and Michael Rogers.  These graduations plus the possibility of losing Brandon Wood to the NBA or transfer have me, and other Crusader fans, a bit nervous about the upcoming season.  Coach had some encouraging words, "Valpo is always a good team and one of the best offensive teams in the league.  They have a lot of really good players coming back...they will be fine."  Finally, as a key member of an opposing coaching staff who's job it is to help get his guys prepared for the games, I asked what they focus on when preparing to take on a Homer Drew coached Crusader team.  DeSimpelare's response, "Guys that can shoot the ball.  Great offensive team."

Hopefully, we'll have a few more of these brief interviews with the opponents throughout the Summer.  Thanks again Coach DeSimpelare and good luck to you and the CSU Vikings whenever you aren't playing our Crusaders!