Game Preview: Loyola

Tuesday is another "biggest game of the year" game against Loyola.  Last year, in similar circumstances, Loyola came into the ARC and wiped the floor with the Crusaders in a 20 point drubbing.  Will things be different this time around?

Loyola has been the league bottom dweller all year, winning only one game against UIC.  The Ramblers have struggled this year, but do have a couple of bright spots on their roster.  Walt Gibler has had an outstanding year, but will probably not play due to a shoulder injury.  Ben Averkamp has also been playing well all year averaging 14.5ppg. Local product Joe Crisman averages nearly 9 a game, and Jordan Hicks (who led the scoring attack against Valpo last time) is scoring 8 a game.  As a team the Ramblers only average 55.6 ppg.  They played at Butler last Tuesday and kept the game close before falling by 6. 

The big question for Valpo is the health of KVW's knee.  He stayed home from the bracket buster trip to get some extra treatment and I think he his ready to go all out.  With or without a 100% healthy KVW there is no reason/excuse for Valpo to lose this game.  The Crusadesr have too many weapons offensively to be held down by an undermanned Loyola team.  Lets get to the predictions.

Looking at team wide PPS:
Valpo: 0.501115
Loyola: 0.360398

Using the PPS Valpo is clearly the more productive team.  Valpo should win this game by at least 14 points.  I'll go a little over that with my official prediction and say Valpo wins the game and the Horizon League regular season title, 66-50.

Returning Crusaders

The Crusaders graduated three players from their 2010-2011 team that saw the team go 23-12 (12-6 in Horizon League play), win the Lou Henson Award Tournament, and lose in the first round of the postseason CIT.  Unfortunately for Valpo, the three seniors they are losing were all played substantial roles. 

Cory Johnson started all 34 games he played in and was second on the team in scoring average at a little over 14ppg.  Besides his scoring effectiveness, he also would have to defend the opponents biggest guys in the paint.  Howard Little started all 35 games this past season for Valpo (the only guy to achieve this feat).  Little averaged just under 10ppg and was the teams leader in offensive rebounds (quite a feat considering he stands 6-3 and was usually giving up 4-5 inches to bigger guys inside).  Little's ability to work the baseline on offense and position himself for those key offensive rebounds will be difficult to replace.  Michael Rogers was the Crusader's sixth man this season.  His acceptance of this role after being a starter in previous years was a huge help for Valpo.  Often part of a double team that would take on the opponents inside scorer, Rogers defensive tenacity will be missed.

With those guys gone, lets take a look at who is coming back to suit up for Coach Drew.  The Crusaders will have returning starters Ryan Broekhoff (6-6 G), Brandon Wood (6-2 G), and Erik Buggs (5-10 G).  Also returning for Valpo will be Hrvoje Vucic (7-1 C), Cameron Witt (6-8 F), Nick Shelton (5-11 G), Jay Harris (6-1 G), Matt Kenney (6-3 G), and Kevin Van Wijk (6-8 F).  The Crusaders have 3 recruits already signed (all guards I believe) and have one remaining scholarship to hand out.  With the returning players Valpo has some outstanding shooters in Broekhoff, Wood, and Harris, a nice inside presence in Van Wijk, and some very good on the ball defenders in Buggs and Kenney.  I would like to see the Crusaders find another inside scoring presence with their final scholarship.

With all these guards who can shoot and slash, and without very many options inside we might see a Valpo offense that spreads out the defense.  This could be a team that lives and dies by the long ball.  Right now, I see the keys to a successful run next year being the ability to hit outside shots, get to the free throw line, defend the opponent's inside players, and rebound (being undersized this could be a trouble area).  These returning players have shown the ability this past season to be able to accomplish all of these things, so there is no reason to expect they can't build off of this year's successes.

Later in the spring/summer we'll take a look at the incoming recruits once all four scholarships have been given out as well as a closer look at each individual player.