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Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Game Plan: Green Bay

For Valpo's next opponent, the Crusaders will welcome in the Phoenix of Green Bay Wednesday night to the ARC.  Valpo has been on a roll recently with victories in their last 5 games and sit at 5-1 a top the Horizon League standings. Meanwhile, Green Bay is right in the mix sitting at 4-2.  They are unbeaten at home and have not found a W while on the road in conference play.

Green Bay features some tall bodies in Alec Brown, Brennan Cougill, and Jordan Fouse.  Fouse has been outstanding recently for the Phoenix.  His length on defense at the top of their 1-2-2 zone has cause some real problems.  Brown has been solid averaging 12 a game in conference, but his fg% is down near 40%.  Cougill (whom reminds me of the marshmallow man) has comeback from his off the court issues to average nearly 10 points a game off the bench.

Green Bay also has some outside shooting in the form of Keifer Sykes, Sultan Muhammed, and Cam Cerroni.  Sykes can be an explosive player, a future all HL member in my opinion, and Valpo would be wise to keep track of where he is at on the court.  Green Bay rebounds well, plays good defense (allowing only 58 points per game in conference play), and they have several shot blockers.  Here are their PPS for conference play only.

Conference Only

Green Bay School Minutes + - PPS
Sykes GB 211 0.87 0.36 0.51
Brown GB 186 0.98 0.38 0.60
Cougill GB 112 1.17 0.38 0.79
Mays GB 92 0.96 0.37 0.59
Fouse GB 159 1.02 0.35 0.67
Muhammad GB 138 0.64 0.25 0.39
Cerroni GB 129 0.46 0.16 0.30
Love GB 81 0.52 0.33 0.19
Turner GB 48 0.35 0.42 -0.07
Stefan GB 42 0.33 0.36 -0.03
Team GB 1200 0.82 0.33 0.49

Here is how I'd attack Green Bay.  First, I'd let Brown and Cougill shoot 3's all day if they want to.  Force those two outside for their shots.  I really think the key to beating GB is to attack the paint and attempt to get their big guys into foul trouble.  I think Valpo can get Brown and Fouse in foul trouble by creating contact with guys like KVW, Ryan, Matt, and even Erik.  Those guys like blocking shots, but fouling is a big risk that comes with the shot blocking.  I really expect to see a lot of Erik breaking down their zone off the dribble and creating a lot of open looks for his perimeter shooting teammates.  Buggs making good decisions when he gets into the lane will be key.  I expect Bogan to continue his hot shooting from the corners and KVW to have another outstanding game.

Conference Only

Valparaiso School Minutes + - PPS
Ryan Broekhoff Valpo 200 1.25 0.27 0.98
Kevin Van Wijk Valpo 151 1.30 0.34 0.96
Lavontae Dority Valpo 128 0.89 0.41 0.48
Matt Kenney Valpo 163 0.85 0.28 0.57
Ben Boggs Valpo 50 0.48 0.26 0.22
Bobby Capobianco Valpo 73 0.74 0.52 0.22
Erik Buggs Valpo 164 0.65 0.34 0.31
Will Bogan Valpo 161 0.42 0.23 0.19
Jordan Coleman Valpo 92 0.57 0.40 0.17
Vashil Fernandez Valpo 18 0.67 0.33 0.34
Team Valpo 1200 0.93 0.33 0.60

Valpo has the higher team PPS and higher individual scores.  I suspect Valpo will win this game rather easily.  I'll throw a final score of 68-59 out there. 


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